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Breakpoint model application to Turkish population growth

2009). In addition, the decline of the mortality rate in Türkiye from the middle of the 2000s according to Durmus (2022)
may be a result of several factors that could explain this phenomenon, such as the reforms in the health system in Türkiye,
introducing to a significant improvements in healthcare organization, resource management, and health service delivery to
be provided equitable access to quality health services for all since the middle of the 2000s.
The effect of total fertility was positive on POPG in Türkiye throughout the entire period simply because of the high
fertility levels. The strongest positive effect of fertility on POPG is considered to be during the third regime (1984 – 2003).
Figure 1 indicates a steady and gradually downward trend of the fertility decline during the entire period as well as due
to the baby boom. Fertility rates in Türkiye have gradually declined mainly from the early 1970s with about 5.5 births
per woman to 2.3 births until early 2000s, that is, the TFR more than halved within these three decades (Ergöçmen and
Özdemir, 2005). It is believed that the fertility behavior in Türkiye is mostly affected by social and economic circumstances
and that the effects of population policies were quite small (Yüksel, 2015). Thus, Yüksel (2015) mentions that there were
some calculations in which the effects of population policies from 1965 to 1980 on fertility were <10 percentages. In
addition, Yüceşahin, Adalı, and Türkyılmaz (2016) also stressed out that although Turkish governments implemented
antinatalist policies and more liberal regulations toward reproductive health after 1965, it is considered that the fertility
decline in Türkiye has followed a course that is much rather independent from these measures. In the study of Bongaarts
from 1993 of the impact of policies, it was found that only 31% of fertility decline in Türkiye could be attributed to family
planning programs (Yüceşahin, Adalı, and Türkyılmaz, 2016). As stated by these scholars, the fertility transition in Türkiye
has mainly carried on as a result of socioeconomic developments and the society’s transformation. In addition, education
reforms became a national objective for Türkiye, increasing mandatory education from 5 to 8 years in 1997 to improve the
levels of educational attainment of the native workforce (Kilic and Biffi, 2021). Furthermore, although Türkiye has gone
through major socioeconomic transformation, Yüceşahin, Adalı, and Türkyılmaz (2016) emphasize that Turkish society has
still preserved its patriarchal foundation, as it is the case with many developing countries. Since labor force participation
among women is low in the country (under 28% within paid employment), therefore, it may be acknowledged that a
population policy could at least partially succeed. During the first regime (1965 – 1975), the trajectory of the total effect
of fertility on POPG was significantly positive reflecting the fertility increase during the previous period. Horiuchi (1995)
calls this “duration-specific effect.” The fertility effect on POPG was positively significant also during the third (1984 –
2003) and fourth (2004 – 2012) regime with a duration of <20 years with positive effect probably mainly because of the
baby boom. After 2000, fertility rates and the future of Türkiye’s population have been discussed at large by scholars,
political parties, and policy makers as well from public media. For the 1 time in the history of the Turkish nation in 2005,
st
the age structure of primary school population has been decreased and after 2010 TFR has declined below replacement
level (Yüksel, 2015). However, the overall effect remained positive, as the accumulation of previous persistent fertility
declines was less pronounced and the compensation for the positive impact of the baby boom.
The results of the effect of NMR on POPG in Türkiye have been explained within this paragraph. Since 1960,
international migration has become a global phenomenon. Employers in Europe and in other regions started to recruit
immigrant workers, so called – guest workers because of a lack of domestic labor supplies (Willekens, 2015). Thus,
labor migration was recruited mainly from South Europe to North and West Europe. The strongest negative effect of the
net migration on POPG in Türkiye was noticed during the first regime (1965 – 1975) mostly as a result of migration of
a large number of Turks mostly to Germany first as guest workers and later as immigrant workers. During 1963 – 1978,
Türkiye was involved in labor recruitment agreements with many European countries (Kilic and Biffi, 2021). Controlled
emigration to European countries was officially organized by the Turkish employment agency in collaboration with the
public employment agencies of countries with whom Türkiye stipulated into bilateral labor recruitment agreements.
The first great and important bilateral labor agreement was with Germany in 1961, and then followed with Austria, the
Netherlands, and Belgium in 1964, France 1965, and Sweden and Australia in 1967 (Kilic and Biffi, 2021). In addition,
the rapid development of rich countries with oil in the Middle East-North Africa region attracted Türkiye by an agreement
with Libya in 1975. At this time, the main characteristics for Türkiye were the lack of political stability and not solved
economic, social issues, and a lot of poverty. Türkiye agreed the policy to send unskilled labor for at least two reasons: To
lessen unemployment as well as to receive remittances from the migrants and consequently lost more skilled workers in
the emigration process than any other Mediterranean countries (Kilic and Biffi, 2021). The positive net migration effect on
POPG from 1976 to 1983 onward may be due to the restriction of immigration policies in many European countries that
started during 1975 – 1980 (Ergöçmen and Özdemir, 2005). Since 1976, the effect of migration has changed the sign from
negative to positive, reflecting the increase in net flow in the country. During the third regime (1984 – 2004), the NMR did
not turn to have positive signs but still remained with smaller negative signs, that is, during this whole period emigration
to certain extent exceeded immigration. The effect of changes in NMR on POPG during this regime (1984 – 2003) was

34 International Journal of Population Studies | 2021, Volume 7, Issue 1