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Miladinov

Our main goal was to convey a deeper understanding by quantifying how much the change in POPG does vary as
a result of observations of included parameters of the breakpoint model for Türkiye in the period of 1965 – 2021. The
robust least square breakpoint regression using sequential methodology and white standard errors confirms the presence
of persistent differences in the impact over POPG in Türkiye during the mentioned period. As mentioned in the previous
section, four statistically significant breaks at 1994, 2001, 2010, and 2014 and consequently five regimes have been
determined using the Bai-Perron tests of sequentially determined breaks. This indicates that circumstances affecting
the mortality, migrations, and fertility in terms of the number of live births and deaths as well as migration trends in the
country before and after these indicated years in Türkiye have been largely influenced by the different dynamics of the
socioeconomic conditions and different contexts in Turkish society (Lee, 2015; Willekens, 2015; Lesthaeghe, 2014). In
this regard, Willekens (2015) states that the processes that are the basis of demographic transitions are interacted with
science and technology, the economy, cultural change, and social and political changes. Furthermore, Lesthaeghe (2011)
explains more clearly that the theory of the second demographic transition completely recognizes the effects of both
structural changes at the macrolevel and economic calculations at the microlevel. The point is that SDT does not consider
these explanations as “sufficient,” but merely as “necessary” or “non-redundant” (Lesthaeghe, 2011). Moreover, the SDT
theory does not consider cultural change as an internal cause of any economic model, but as a necessary additional force
with its own external, that is, exogenous effects on demographic outcomes.
It is frequently discussed that the demographic transition in Türkiye is not so advanced (Caarls and de Valk, 2018).
However, Türkiye has undergone crucial socioeconomic changes in recent decades and this also has had an impact on
the transitions of family life. Herewith, Caarls and de Valk (2018) emphasize that these changes are attributed to the
processes of modernization, exposure to Western values, as well as socioeconomic changes. Moreover, as these scholars
have mentioned, what also makes Türkiye an interesting illustration is the huge regional variation: There are significant
differences between regions both in terms of both economic development and to the extension of more modern values to
family life. In view of TFRs, for example, in some regions, these rates are close to those of European countries, while in
other regions, the TFR remained very high. In addition, the effects of demographic changes on later POPG can have wider
interpretations. Horiuchi (1995) pointed out that demographic changes have an impact on POPG and age distribution in
later years, which, in turn, has an impact on future POPG. In any analysis of the current POPG, it is of great importance to
take into account the past events of the population. In addition, Horiuchi (1995) showed that not only events that occurred
in the recent past but also events that occurred several decades earlier could have significant effects on the current growth
rate. These effects are indirect and its impact works through changes in the age structure. The most glaring example is the
baby boom generations. These empirical results show clear evidence that in the past 57 years, that is, from 1965 to 2021,
the POPG rate in Türkiye is characterized by a different trend and that it has a different effect of the key variables (TFR,
CDR, and NMR) on the rate of POPG. From the results in Table 1, it is obvious that the changes in fertility, mortality, and
migration trends have notably different impacts on POPG rate in Türkiye. However, it is also argued that life expectancy
at birth (e0), TFR, and NMR may be also a good set for modeling since e0 takes age composition into account, while
CDR is affected by the age structure of a population of a given year. The conclusion will be likely different if different
demographic variables are used in the Bai-Perron approach (Appendix, Table A).
The effect of mortality on POPG gradually increased except for the last regime (2013 – 2021) when fluctuations were
noticed. This effect is not the result of an accelerated decline in mortality, as the effect of changes in mortality over the entire
period of almost 50 years has remained relatively constant with a steady decline as confirmed by the period data. This effect
may be attributed to the accumulation of the reduced mortality. Thus, since 1965, several decades of improved mortality
have accumulated. These patterns are consistent with trends in life expectancy in Türkiye which show an acceleration of life
expectancy growth in the same period (Bakar, Oymak, and Maral, 2017; World Bank, 2022b; OECD, 2011). The model of
the contribution of mortality to POPG has changed during these 57 years and was negative for the first regime (1965 – 1975)
and the last regime (2013 – 2021). The impact of mortality on POPG was positive during 1976 – 2012. It is not surprising
to claim that a constant infant and child deaths during the first decade or regime of our research study (1965 – 1975) have
contributed to reducing the desired number of children, which, as a consequence, had the impact of declining POPG. For
a long time, the decreasing infant and child mortality determined the tendency in the death rate (Willekens, 2015). Thus,
cumulated improvement in infant and child mortality during the past 57 years as well as the reduction in adult mortality
during the whole period contributed the effect of crude death to significantly positive, especially during the second and
fourth regimes, that is, (1976 – 1983) and (2004 – 2012), respectively. It is supposed that the mortality effect was positive
on POPG during this period mainly as a result of the accumulation of several years of infant and child mortality reduction.
It is evident that infant and child mortality decline was very rapid in the remote past compared to the recent past. A lot of
literature discusses great improvements of these events in Türkiye during this period (Özen, 2018; Dumont, 2011; Seçkin,

International Journal of Population Studies | 2021, Volume 7, Issue 1 33