Page 89 - IJPS-8-1

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
Fertility by parity in China in the context of

changing fertility policy

Yuanyuan Duan , and Wei Chen *
2
1
1 College of Humanities and Development Studies, China Agricultural University, Beijing,
China,100193
2 Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China,
100872

Abstract
The study aims to investigate the dynamics of fertility by parity of Chinese women
over the past seven decades under the context of changing fertility policy. Using data
from population censuses, population sample surveys, and fertility surveys in China,
the study estimates China’s fertility by parity from 1949 to 2020 by adopting multiple
fertility measures, including parity-specific total fertility rate, parity progression ratio,
parity-progression-ratio-based total fertility rate, and cumulated cohort fertility
rate, as well as the decomposition method. The study further evaluates the unique
features of China’s configuration of parity-specific fertility through an international
comparative analysis of some Western countries based on data from the Human
Fertility Database. It shows that in China, both the rigid fertility policy of restricting the
number and timing/spacing of children implemented since the early 1980s and the
recent relaxation of fertility policy of gradually easing the number and timing/spacing
of children have had a significant impact on fertility patterns and levels, especially for

*Corresponding author: parity two. However, the effect of fertility policy relaxation in a low-fertility context has
Wei, Chen. (weichen@ruc.edu.cn) been less sustainable than the earlier rigid fertility policy that contributed to the rapid
decline in fertility for second and higher orders of parity. Under the joint influence of
Citation: Duan, Y., & Chen, W.
(2022). Fertility by parity in China the Confucian fertility culture, rapid socioeconomic growth, and the internalization
in the context of changing fertility of long-standing strict fertility policies, China has formed a unique pattern of parity-
policy. International Journal of specific fertility profile compared to those of some developed societies, with a
Population Studies, 8(1):83-101.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348 universal progression to the first birth, a very low but policy sensitive progression to
the second birth, and an extremely low progression to the third birth.
Received: July 4, 2022
Accepted: September 19, 2022
Keywords: Total fertility rate; Parity progression ratio; Fertility by parity; Fertility policy; China
Published Online: October 21, 2022
Copyright: © 2022 Author(s).
This is an Open Access article
distributed under the terms of the 1. Introduction
Creative Commons Attribution
License, permitting distribution, Parity analysis is essential for a deeper understanding of fertility dynamics. The reduction
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is of high-order births has been a main determinant of the initial decline toward low fertility,
properly cited. while the change of pace of postponement at birth order one and two has emerged as a
Publisher’s Note: AccScience crucial driver of recent fertility change among low-fertility settings (Bongaarts & Sobotka,
Publishing remains neutral with 2012; Kohler, et al., 2002). A rapid shift to delayed childbearing and a low probability of
regard to jurisdictional claims in progression of a higher order after the first birth were regarded as the important features
published maps and institutional
affiliations. of lowest-low fertility in the late 1990s in European countries (Billari & Kohler, 2004). In

Volume 8 Issue 1 (2022) 83 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348