Page 90 - IJPS-8-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Fertility by parity in China

line with this, the increases of the first and second births interrupted firstly by the Great Famine during the period
resulted by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement from 1959 to 1961 and then by the early years of Cultural
have contributed substantially to the increases in the overall Revolution in the late 1960s.
period total fertility rate (TFR) between 1998 and 2008 in In Phase 2, during the 1970s, there was control of the
European countries (Bongaarts & Sobotka, 2011). timing/spacing of birth orders one and two as well as the

Underlying the dynamics of period fertility, there has restrictions on third and higher birth orders. In the early
been a well-documented long-term decline in cohort fertility 1970s, China resumed its nationwide fertility policy with
by parity across developed countries. In these countries, the the campaign slogan “later, longer, fewer” (wan xi shao),
reduction in the progression ratios to the third and higher referring to later marriage, longer birth interval, and fewer
orders was the main driver of fertility decline among women number of children. By a later marriage, the minimum age
born between 1940 and 1955; the falling first or second of later marriage was set at 23 years old for women and
birth played the major role in changes in fertility among 25 years old for men in rural areas and 25 for women and
women born between 1950 and 1970 (Zeman, et al., 2018). 28 for men in urban areas. By a longer birth interval, the
Nevertheless, parity distribution of fertility in different minimum interval between the first birth and second birth
countries may vary considerably even when they have was set at 3 years in 1978. By fewer children, the maximum
similar levels of cohort fertility (Zeman, et al., 2018). number of children was initially three children for rural

As the most populous country, fertility in China is couples and two for urban couples, but two children for all
of global significance. Fertility in China has undergone couples since 1977 (Bongaarts & Greenhalgh, 1985).
significant changes since the foundation of People’s In Phase 3, from 1980 to the early 2010s, the policy-
Republic of China in 1949, which has been well- allowed number of children was one child (or two or three
documented to be closely associated with its fertility in certain cases) and the stipulations of timing/spacing
policies. The extraordinary fertility transition in China of births were also applied. The rigid one-child policy,
since the 1970s is widely considered to be the product of a under which every couple was allowed to have only one
strict birth control policy interacting with socioeconomic child, except very special circumstances, was implemented
development. However, there has been much confusion on nationally in 1980. In the early stages of the implementation
the extent to which that fertility policy has been effective to of the one-child policy, there were only a few circumstances
lower the fertility because of the complexity associated with in which a second child was allowed, mostly for couples in
data quality and measurement issues since the 1990s. The rural areas. The proportion of couples who were allowed
recent adjustments of fertility policy after 2015 designed to have a second child of the total number of couples was
to lessen restrictions on childbearing have received wide no more than 10% (Lu & Zhai, 2009). This rigid one-
attention, yet there have been doubts casted on how child policy was revised first in 1984 and then in 1986 by
much the new policy could boost fertility. The control allowing more couples to have a second child but limiting
of parity and timing/spacing has been the key content third and higher-order births as well as unauthorized
of China’s fertility policy and varied with the evolution second births due to the strong resistance from residents
of fertility policy, making the fertility parity analysis in in rural areas with widespread traditional values of large
China especially pertinent. The analysis of period/cohort family and strong son preferences (Greenhalgh, 1986).
level and patterns of fertility since 1949 in China from the From 1984 on, some rural couples were allowed to have
parity perspective would help to illustrate the effects of the a second child under certain conditions. The policy was
changing fertility policy on fertility during the period. further modified in 1988 to a “1.5-child policy”: Couples in
major rural areas were allowed to have a second child after
1.1. Evolution of fertility policy and its control of a certain interval after their first child if that first child was
parity and timing/spacing a girl. This adjusted version of the one-child policy lasted
The evolution of China’s fertility policy on parity and from the mid-to-late 1980s until the end of 2013 (Zhao,
timing/spacing could be divided into four phases. In Phase 2015). If all couples follow fully the fertility policy, there
1, from 1949 to the early 1970s, there was neither control would be 63% of them ending up with only one child in the
of number of children nor timing/spacing of births. late 1990s (Gu, et al., 2007). However, the actual proportion
Although China piloted its first official family planning of women having only one child estimated from the 2017
program in the early 1950s, the primary focus of the China Fertility Survey data was much lower. The cohort
policy was to promote the ideas of birth control and small cumulative fertility rate was 1.6 – 1.7 for women aged
families without explicit regulation on control of number 35–44 in 2017 who entered childbearing age in the late
of children and timing/spacing of births (Jiang & Liu, 2016; 1990s and early 2000s (Chen & Duan, 2019), with only 41%
Lu & Zhai, 2009; Zhang & Cao, 2006). The policy was of them ending up with one child. Exemptions to the one-

Volume 8 Issue 1 (2022) 84 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348