Page 95 - IJPS-8-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Fertility by parity in China

Figure 2. Mean ages at the first birth, second birth, and interval between the first and second birth of Chinese women, 1950 – 2020
Sources: The 1982 Fertility Survey: Calculations made by Liu and Zou (2011) from the National One-per-Thousand Fertility Survey in 1982; The 1988 Fertility Survey: Calculations made by Feeney and
Feng (1993) from the National Two-per-Thousand Fertility Survey in 1982; The 1992 Fertility Survey: Tabulations from Statistics of the 1992 Fertility Sampling Survey in China, edited by Jiang (1995); The
1997 and 2001 Fertility Surveys: Calculations made by Ding (2003) from the National Population and Reproductive Health Surveys in 1997 and 2001; Censuses/Population Sample Surveys: Estimations
from national population censuses performed in 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, and the national one per cent intercensal sample surveys conducted in 1987, 1995, 2005 and 2015, and the national one per
thousand annual sample surveys of population change from 1982 to 2020; The 2017 Fertility Survey: Authors’ own estimations from the National Fertility Survey in 2017.

interval between the first and second births of women who orders, the actual second-birth fertility rate throughout the
were allowed to have second births increased, especially 1990s was higher than the level shown in Figure 1.
between 1985 and 1987. The increase in the interval between Despite the great differences among estimates of the
the birth of the first child and the second child further delayed TFR since 2000 based on different data sources, the rough
women’s age at the second child, which led to a reduction in trends of fertility are relatively consistent. The estimated
the period fertility rate of the second birth (Ding, 2003). first-birth fertility rate based on census/sample survey data
In the fourth stage, the second-birth fertility rate for was higher than that calculated based on the 2017 Fertility
Chinese women showed a rapid decline, falling to a level of Survey data, while the estimates of the fertility rates for
around 0.33 by the end of the 1990s. During the same period, the second birth, third birth and above based on census/
the first-birth fertility rate remained stable at 0.84 – 0.91. The sample survey data were lower than those estimated based
trend in the parity-specific TFR for the third child and above on the 2017 Fertility Survey data. An overall trend from
also showed a rapid decline in the early 1990s, but remained estimates based on different data sources shows that the
stable in the late 1990s. Assuming that underreporting of level of second-birth fertility began to fluctuate upwards
births was more serious for the second child and higher after 2000, reaching its peak in 2016 before falling down.

Volume 8 Issue 1 (2022) 89 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348