Page 96 - IJPS-8-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Fertility by parity in China

This contrasts with the fluctuating decline in the first-birth fertility schedule was an unrestricted “natural fertility
fertility and the relative stability of fertility rate for the schedule” (Feng, 1985), characterizing by “early, dense,
third birth and above over the same period. and numerous” childbearing with women having children
To be specific, the changes in the second-child throughout the reproductive span (Song & Li, 1991).
fertility after 2000 have been influenced by two factors: Following the implementation of “later, longer, fewer” policy
First, the reduction in the lifetime cohort fertility that in the 1970s and one-child policy in 1980, the age pattern of
has had a negative effect on the second-birth fertility; Chinese women shifted to a “controlled fertility schedule”
second, the gradual entry of the first only-child cohort (Feng, 1985). Since the mid-1990s, the age-specific fertility
into reproductive age since 2004 as well as the gradual schedule has been characterized by a steady delay in the
relaxation of fertility policies, including the successive age at births and an increasing proportion of second births
removal of the restriction on interval between first and (Song & Tang, 2017). There was a significant change in the
second birth since 2002, the implementation of selective fertility schedule in 2016, with fertility rates of second births
two-child policy in 2013 and the universal two-child being higher than that of first births, which is clearly related
policy in 2015. Due to the relaxation of fertility policies, to the implementation of universal two-child policy.
the proportion of women in reproductive age who are The schedule of age-specific fertility shows different
allowed to have a second child has increased, which, in characteristics for different parities. There was a
turn, has had a positive effect on the second-birth fertility. pronounced change in age-specific fertility schedule for
It is evident that the positive effect of the latter factor parity one before and after the start of the 21 century,
st
was greater than the negative effect of the former factor. shifting from a concentrated schedule to a flat one. The
With the removal of the two-child restriction in 2015, the shift of fertility schedule for parity three and above
second-birth fertility fell after a timely rise in 2016 and occurred even earlier, between the 1970s and 1980s, with
2017, suggesting that the policy did have a significant but substantial declines at nearly all ages. The fertility schedule
unsustainable “accumulative” effect. for parity three and above stabilized ever since the 1990s.
There has been a significant delay in women’s age at first Compared with the fertility schedules for parity one and
and second births and an increase in the interval between for parity three and above, the changes of fertility schedule
the first and second births since the 1990s. This has been for parity two were more complex. In 1970, the peak of
resulted from the further intensification of fertility policy in age-specific fertility rates for parity two of Chinese women
the 1990s as well as the increased opportunities for women occurred at age 23 with a fertility rate of 0.13, indicating
to have higher education during this period. Women’s age an early childbearing and a higher level for parity two. The
at first birth is closely associated with women’s age at first 1980s saw a delay in childbearing for parity two, with the
marriage, while their age at second births is associated peak fertility rate shifting to occur at age 25 with a fertility
with both the age at first birth and the interval between the rate of 0.08. The schedule of age-specific fertility rate for
first and second births. The interval between the first and parity two fluctuated in 1989, with the peak age advancing
second births maintained around 3 years from the 1950s to 24 years. The age-specific fertility rates for parity two
to the 1970s in the first and second stages of demographic in 2000 and 2010 shows a substantial fall at nearly all ages
transition, which is close to natural intervals. In the third compared to those for 1989. After the implementation
stage in the 1980s under the one-child policy and its of the universal two-child policy, there was a significant
corresponding regulations on birth interval, the interval increase in age-specific fertility rate for parity two in 2016,
between the first and second births increased to around especially for women aged 35 years old and above.
4 years. From the mid-1990s, the interval between the It is worth noting that there are differences in the
first and second births increased and became higher than schedules of estimates in 2000, 2010, and 2016 using
4 years, reaching a peak in 2005–2006, and then declined different data sources. In general, estimates of age-specific
as birth spacing controls were phased out. The interval fertility scheduled for parity two, parity three and above
remained at around 3 years recently. based on 2017 Fertility Survey data were higher than
those obtained from census/sample survey data, while the
3.2. Period fertility schedule by parity opposite was true for age-specific fertility rates for parity
Trends in overall fertility came from changing age-specific one.
fertility. Figure 3 shows age-specific fertility rates by parity in
1970, 1980, 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2016. The fertility schedule 3.3. PPPRs
of Chinese women saw a transition from a “natural fertility Figure 4 shows the PPPRs by parity from 1955 to 2016.
schedule” to a “controlled fertility schedule” with the fertility The progression ratio to second births in China remained
transition. During the 1950s and 1960s, the age-specific stable at around 0.98 from the 1950s to the late 1960s and

Volume 8 Issue 1 (2022) 90 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348