Page 93 - IJPS-8-1

International Journal of
Population Studies Fertility by parity in China

consideration, showing the total fertility rate of a population In the second phase, the TFR in China has declined
that is calculated based on age-parity-specific fertility rates continuously and rapidly in the 1970s, plummeting from
(Rallu and Toulemon, 1994). The calculation of PPTFR 5.71 children per woman in 1970 to 2.73 in 1979 due to the
requires the use of parity progression ratios and life tables. nationwide “later, longer, fewer” fertility policy launched
Supplementary information 1 presents a full description of in the early 1970s. By parity, the decline of fertility of third
the calculation process and formula for PPTFR. Detailed birth and above was substantial, falling steeply from 3.90 in
calculation methods can also be found in relevant literature 1970 to 1.18 in 1980. While the decline of fertility for parity
(Feeney, 1983; Feeney & Yu, 1987; Ma, et al., 1986b; Rallu one and parity two was modest during the same period,
& Toulemon, 1994). with the first-birth fertility rate declining from 0.96 to
Guided by the previous study on decomposition of 0.67 in 1975, then increasing to 0.86 in 1979, and with the
cohort fertility in low-fertility countries (Zeman, et al., second-birth fertility rate declining from 0.90 in 1970 to
2018), this study also explores how parity progression ratios 0.61 in 1977, then slightly rising to 0.68 in 1979. Due to the
varied across cohorts and the contribution of changing fertility policy during this period, there was a significant
parity progression ratios to the overall change in completed monotonic decline of fertility for parity three and above
cohort fertility in China. The specific decomposition and a corresponding delay in the births for parities one
process is presented in supplementary information 2. and two. Accordingly, the decline in the second-birth
fertility rate was related to the delay of the age at second
3. Results birth, rather than a real decline of the level of second-birth

3.1. Period TFR by parity and ages at the first and fertility.
second births In the third phase, the TFR hovered between 2.20 and
Figure 1 plots the TFR and parity-specific TFR for Chinese 2.86 in the 1980s, with two significant “rebounds” in 1982
women from 1949 to 2020 based on all datasets we used and 1986, respectively. The second-birth fertility reversed
for this research. China has experienced a dramatic from a downward trend in the 1970s to an upward trend
fertility transition between the 1950s and 1990s. Fertility in the 1980s. Affected by the one-child policy, the fertility
in China fell to replacement level in the early 1990s and for the second birth fell to its lowest level ever since the
has remained low for almost three decades since then. The founding of the People’s Republic of China, with a level
fertility transition in China can be roughly divided into of 0.59 in 1980, but it then fluctuated upward, reaching
four stages (Chen, 2003; Lu & Zhai, 2009): Pre-transitional a peak of 0.86 in 1987 during this phase. Over the same
fertility during the 1950s and 1960s; rapid fertility decline period, the fertility rate for the first birth continued to be
or first fertility transition in the 1970s; buffered fertility in > 1 throughout the 1980s, with a peak level of 1.3 in 1982.
the 1980s; and continued low-fertility or second fertility The fertility rate for the third child and above showed a
transition from the 1990s. fluctuating downward trend, with a level of around 0.81 in
1981 and 1982, and then declining to 0.57 in 1987.
Fertility by parity shows different characteristics in
different stages of China’s fertility transition. In the first The fluctuant and even the rebound TFR was related to the
stage, TFR stabilized at a high level of about six in the 1960s reverse of the postponement trend in the ages at marriage and
due to the socioeconomic development and people’s living childbearing of young cohorts as well as the “compensation”
being restored from a protracted war since the founding of of delayed childbearing of the old cohorts in the 1970s. This
the People’s Republic of China. TFR in China fell sharply superimposed effect of childbearing for early and older
during the Great Famine from 1959 to 1961, with the cohorts offsets the decline in cohort fertility to some extent.
lowest level of fertility of 3.29 children per woman during The fertility rate for parity one continued to be > 1, which is
this period. The TFR recovered to 6.02 in 1962 and 7.46 a reflection of this superimposed effect. There were two main
in 1963 soon after the Great Famine and then fluctuated reasons for the reverse of postponement of women’s marriage
at around six children per woman in the late 1960s. In and childbearing in the 1980s. First, the new marriage law
the 1950s and 1960s, the fertility for parities one and two launched in 1980 set the legal age of marriage for women
fluctuated at around one, while fertility for parity three and at 20 years old, which was 3 years lower than that regulated
above fluctuated at around four, except the period of Great by the fertility policy in the 1970s, leading to an advance of
Famine. The changes of fertility and fertility by parity were marriage for women (Zha & Ji, 1984). Second, the household
mainly resulted from the structure of childbearing age of contract responsibility system in the context of economic
women. The traditional fertility attitudes and low level of reform, which was widely implemented in rural areas during
social development were the main forces to maintain the this period, contributed to the tendency of rural residents
high level of fertility at the first stage. to get married and to give births early. This was due to the

Volume 8 Issue 1 (2022) 87 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.v8i1.348