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Spatiotemporal variability and climate forcing mechanisms

1. Introduction climate-driving mechanisms underlying the significant
decline in WER and SER from the perspective of climate
Against the backdrop of intensifying global climate change. This study aims to answer two key questions:
change, China has formally announced its “Dual Carbon (i) what are the temporal and spatial evolution patterns
Goals” (peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving of WER and SER under the background of a warm and
carbon neutrality by 2060), prioritizing energy structure humid climate in NWC? and (ii) What are the climate-
transformation through accelerated clean energy driving mechanisms of the WER and SER in NWC
adoption and phased fossil fuel reduction. As two changes on an interannual scale in NWC?
1-4
technologically mature and globally scalable renewable
energy sources, wind and solar power have undergone 2. Materials and methods
rapid deployment in China’s energy matrix. Notably,
5-7
these climate-dependent resources exhibit strong 2.1. Study area
spatiotemporal variability influenced by atmospheric NWC is an important part of the arid region of Central
dynamics and surface–atmosphere interactions. 8,9 Asia (73°25’ – 110°55’E, 31°35’ – 49°15’N), accounting
Meteorological records over the past five decades for about one-third of China’s land area (Figure 1).
reveal concerning trends: A persistent decline in The region is deeply inland, far from the ocean, and
terrestrial wind speeds and diminishing annual surrounded by high mountains, which block the inflow
total solar radiation (TSR) across mainland China, of moist oceanic air. It exhibits a typical continental
with particularly marked reductions in northwest climate and is thus the driest area in China. 16,17 Although
China (NWC). While urbanization-induced surface the region is rich in WER and SER, and the climate has
8
modifications (such as increased albedo and aerodynamic shown a trend of warming and humidification in recent
roughness) are recognized contributing factors, NWC decades, both WER and SER in the region have been
presents a counterintuitive case study. 10,11 This region gradually decreasing. 18,19
has maintained relatively stable urbanization levels
since 1987 while experiencing a paradoxical “warm– 2.2. Data sources
wet transition” climate shift. This decoupling suggests Daily sunshine duration, average wind speed, and
12
that synoptic-scale circulation changes may dominate average air pressure data were obtained from the China
over local anthropogenic impacts in driving renewable Surface Climate Data Daily Value Dataset V3.0. In this
energy resource depletion in NWC. 12,13 study, data pre-processing was conducted by discarding
Present research paradigms exhibit two critical sites with significant data loss. The exclusion criterion
limitations: (i) overemphasis on continental/global- was that sites with more than 20% missing data over
scale analyses, which obscures regional climate zone the time series were removed. For stations with <20%
specificities, particularly in arid regions with optimal missing data, linear interpolation was performed using
renewable energy resource development potential; data from adjacent years. The interpolated results were
5,6
and (ii) methodological constraints that favor short- then compared with and corrected using the climatic
term (<10 years) observational datasets over decadal- research unit (CRU) dataset. After this pre-processing,
scale climate pattern analyses, 9,10 while also neglecting a total of 400 meteorological stations with complete
differences across climate zones, especially in arid sunshine duration and average wind speed data from
areas where the wind energy resources (WER) and 1961 to 2019 were selected.
solar energy resources (SER) are abundant and In addition, to explore the climate-driving
conditions for their development and utilization are mechanisms behind WER and SER in NWC, relevant
more favorable. 14,15 Addressing these knowledge gaps is data on atmospheric circulation (ASC) and climate
imperative for developing climate-resilient renewable change were collected based on existing research.
energy strategies in vulnerable ecotones. The ASC index data were sourced from the National
In summary, to explain the significant decline in WER Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, United
and SER in NWC over the past half century, this study States of America (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/
takes NWC as the study area and applies trend analysis, enso/). To supplement climate indicators such as cloud
spectral analysis, and random forest (RF) modeling to cover, the study also utilized CRU’s 100-year sequence
examine the evolution characteristics of WER and SER grid dataset (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/data/). The time
in NWC from 1961 to 2019. It further analyzes the series for all the above data spans from 1961 to 2019.

Volume 22 Issue 4 (2025) 29 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025190147