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Land–cover change in the Ngerengere River

the reduction in built-up land by 2024. Alongside this, forested areas, contributing to habitat degradation. 29,71
a shift in land cover composition became evident, with Subsistence farming was observed in nearly all surveyed
shrubland emerging as the dominant cover. However, locations, affirming its dominance as a livelihood
the projected decrease in shrubland by 2034 is likely strategy. Fuelwood collection emerged as another major
due to the gradual transition from sparse vegetation to activity, reported at a 30% frequency, occurring daily
mature shrubland – a process that takes time, and not all across many areas. This intensive dependence on natural
areas may fully regenerate within that period. A slight resources reflects economic vulnerability and highlights
reduction in bare land might indicate stabilization in mounting pressure on forest ecosystems. Additional
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some previously degraded areas, while the noticeable activities, including timber harvesting, settlement
increase in dense vegetation suggests that restoration expansion, and the development of informal market
initiatives may be producing positive outcomes. 66,67 centers, may have compounded land degradation and
Nonetheless, persistent hydrological stress – highlighted landscape fragmentation. These findings echo previous
by the negligible water coverage – continues to studies that have linked anthropogenic activities to river
underscore the impacts of ongoing drought conditions ecosystem degradation. 8,10,73
and unsustainable water use. The cumulative effects of deforestation and land
Moreover, projections for 2034 suggest further clearing are increasingly visible in the form of soil
ecological transformation, with sparse vegetation erosion, biodiversity loss, and deteriorating water
expected to dominate. This could be attributed to quality. As vegetation is removed, reduced infiltration
sustained restoration efforts or natural vegetation and increased runoff can lead to seasonal water scarcity
recovery influenced by climatic factors. A decline and sedimentation of water bodies. This directly
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in bare land aligns with expectations of successful threatens agricultural productivity, ecosystem health,
rehabilitation, although a predicted reduction in dense and water security in the Morogoro region. Given these
vegetation indicates lingering threats, such as logging challenges, there is a pressing need to adopt integrated
and agricultural encroachment. 68,69 The forecasted drop in and sustainable land-use planning approaches. 67,74
built-up areas may reflect improved enforcement of land Conservation-oriented strategies such as agroforestry,
use regulations, while the modest return of surface water regulated logging, community-led reforestation, and
could signal early success in water conservation efforts. participatory forest management can help reverse
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In general, the continued ecological transformation degradation trends. 66,67 Moreover, public awareness and
projected for 2034 further emphasizes the long-term environmental education initiatives must be scaled up to
impact of LULCCs on the catchment. The dominance promote resource stewardship and reduce unsustainable
of subsistence farming across almost all surveyed areas, practices. 15,75 Without timely and coordinated
combined with deforestation and unsustainable land intervention, the ecological and socioeconomic
practices, is likely to exacerbate soil erosion, reduce consequences of ongoing LULCC may jeopardize the
groundwater recharge, and alter streamflow patterns – sustainability of both natural systems and community
thereby, compromising the hydrological balance of the livelihoods in the Ngerengere River catchment. 67,76
Ngerengere River system. Overall, the integration of remote sensing data and
Field observations further reinforce the findings field observations clearly indicates that human–driven
of this study, revealing that LULCCs are adversely LULCC is a major threat to the sustainability of the
affecting the hydrology and ecological integrity of the Ngerengere River and its surrounding ecosystems.
Ngerengere River. These on-the-ground insights closely Immediate attention to sustainable land management
align with the satellite-based LULC analysis, which and conservation interventions is critical to mitigate
shows, for instance, a 17.6% decline in sparse vegetation further ecological and hydrological degradation.
between 2004 and 2014, followed by an additional
27.01% decrease from 2014 to 2024. This consistent 5. Limitations
downward trend highlights ongoing deforestation and While this study provides valuable insights into
land degradation across the catchment, confirming the LULCCs within the Ngerengere River catchment,
significant environmental pressure driven by human several limitations should be acknowledged. The
activities. Agricultural expansion is the most pervasive analysis relied primarily on Landsat imagery with
land use activity, with 38% frequency, driven by the a 30-m spatial resolution, which, although widely
need for crop cultivation and livestock grazing. This available and historically comprehensive, limited the
land conversion has often come at the expense of detection of fine-scale changes in heterogeneous or

Volume 22 Issue 5 (2025) 123 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025180137