Page 125 - AJWEP-22-5

Land–cover change in the Ngerengere River

Table 4. LULCC (in km ) between 2000 and 2034 along the Ngerengere River sub–catchment
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Land cover 2004 2014 2024 2034
km 2 % km 2 % km 2 % km 2 %
Dense vegetation 1.0 0.04 10.01 0.36 198.09 7.13 92.57 3.33
Grass land 155 5.57 204.34 7.36 145.95 5.25 141.1 5.08
Wetland 1.0 0.04 2.50 0.09 13.62 0.49 3.06 0.11
Water 27 0.98 1.95 0.07 1.95 0.07 12.23 0.44
Built–up area 19 0.67 151.23 5.44 58.38 2.1 25.3 0.91
Bare land 850 30.56 1235.08 44.42 1098.89 39.14 856.07 30.81
Sparse vegetation 1416 50.92 925.86 33.29 174.22 6.28 1449.19 52.13
Shrubland 312 11.21 249 8.97 1098.41 39.54 199.38 7.19
Total 2780 100 2780 100 2780 100 2780 100
Abbreviation: LULCC: Land use and land cover change.

Figure 3. Spatial distribution of land cover in Ngerengere River catchment in 2004

Grassland area increased to 7.36% (204.37 km ), and slight area decline of bare land to 39.14% (1088.89 km ).
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wetlands, though still limited, expanded slightly to Notably, dense vegetation shows a substantial increase
0.09% (2.50 km ), pointing to changing vegetation in area to 7.13% (198.09 km ) (Table 4). While built–up
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dynamics that could be influenced by localized climate areas decline to 2.1% (58.38 km ), water bodies remain
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shifts or restoration initiatives (Table 4 and Figure 4). critically low, covering only 0.07% (1.95 km )
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Most concerning, however, is the drastic reduction in (Table 4 and Figure 5).
water bodies from 27 km in 2004 to just 1.95 km in
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2014 (Table 4 and Figure 4). 3.3. Prediction of the LULCC for 2034 along the
Land cover data for 2024 indicates a significant Ngerengere River catchment
ecological shift in the Ngerengere River catchment, The land cover projection for 2034 indicates continued
with shrubland emerging as the dominant land cover, ecological transformation within the Ngerengere River
accounting for 39.54% (1098.41 km ) of the area catchment (Table 4 and Figure 6). Sparse vegetation
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(Table 4 and Figure 5). This change is accompanied by a area is expected to expand significantly, covering

Volume 22 Issue 5 (2025) 119 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025180137