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Nkinda, et al.

Ngerengere River catchment is LULCC. The impacts covering an area of 2,780 km , is part of the Wami–
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of LULCC on watershed ecosystems have raised Ruvu basin. It originates as fast–flowing streams in the
growing concerns due to their wide-ranging social, Uluguru mountains and plays a critical role in supplying
economic, political, and environmental implications water to urban areas of Morogoro municipality before
at local, regional, and national levels. 29,32,33 As a result, draining into the Mindu reservoir. 14,38 The river spans
detecting and analyzing LULCC has become essential a significant portion of the Morogoro region, including
for gaining deeper insights into land–use dynamics, Morogoro urban district and parts of Morogoro rural
tracking environmental change, and guiding effective district.
river ecosystem management. In river catchments, The Ngerengere River catchment is characterized by
alterations in vegetation cover can significantly disrupt a bimodal rainfall pattern (Figure 2a). The short rains
hydrological functions, reducing the land’s capacity to typically occur from November to January, followed by a
retain water, increasing surface runoff, and elevating the brief dry period in February. The long rainy season extends
risk of droughts and floods. 14,29 from March to May and is followed by a prolonged dry
Despite advances in remote sensing and Earth spell from June to October. Annual rainfall across most
observation technologies, a global knowledge gap of the catchment ranges between 800 mm and 1,000 mm,
remains in integrating field-based observations with but in the upstream areas near the Uluguru Mountains,
satellite data to assess LULCC, especially at the it exceeds 2,000 mm. Temperatures throughout the
catchment scale. Remote sensing offers broad landscape year are relatively stable. July is usually the coolest
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monitoring, but without ground-truthing, classification month, averaging around 16°C, while October tends to
accuracy is limited and can misrepresent human– be the hottest, with temperatures reaching up to 31°C
environment interactions. Many global studies rely on (Figure 2b). The mean annual temperature is about 26°C
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either remote or field data alone, failing to consider key (Figure 2b). Estimated annual potential evaporation falls
socio-ecological drivers of LULCC. In East Africa between 1,500 mm and 1,700 mm, generally surpassing
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– particularly Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania the average annual rainfall. Furthermore, the riparian
– this gap is pronounced. Activities like small-scale plants in the Ngerengere River ecosystem primarily
farming, informal settlements, and charcoal production include species such as Cyperus rotundus (Sedges),
often escape detection without local input. For Phragmites australis (Reeds), Pennisetum purpureum
example, in Tanzania and Kenya’s Tana Basin, forest (Elephant grasses), Typha domingensis (Bulrush),
loss and urban expansion are detected remotely but Phragmites mauritianus (Phragmites), Sesbania sesban
lack contextual attribution. Integrating ground data (Sesbania), and Ficus sycomorus (Ficus).
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with remote sensing is essential for accurate LULCC Moreover, the river supports several socioeconomic
analysis and for designing effective, catchment-specific activities, including domestic water supply, irrigation,
management interventions. Therefore, a comprehensive industrial use, and livestock watering, particularly for the
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understanding of LULCC in the Ngerengere River sub- Ngerengere Maasai community. The Morogoro region
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catchment is crucial for supporting evidence-based is located approximately 190 km southwest of Dar es
land-use planning, enhancing biodiversity conservation Salaam. 14,29,39 The region experiences a tropical climate,
efforts, and informing strategies for climate change with the highest temperatures, averaging 33°C, occurring
adaptation. In general, this study aimed to: (i) assess the between November and December, while the lowest
historical trends of LULCCs from 2004 to 2024 along the temperatures, around 16°C, are recorded between June
Ngerengere River catchment, (ii) predict the LULCCs and August. According to the 2022 census, the Morogoro
for 2034 along the Ngerengere River catchment, and region has a population of 3,197,104, with Morogoro
(iii) evaluate human activities performed along the municipality accounting for 315,866 residents. 14
Ngerengere River catchment.
2.2. Methods
2. Materials and methods 2.2.1. Data acquisition and processing
The study used both spatial and non-spatial datasets
2.1. Study area derived from primary and secondary sources. Primary
The study was conducted in the Morogoro region data included Landsat satellite imagery retrieved
(06°49′27″S, 37°39′48″E), Tanzania, with a specific within the Google Earth Engine (GEE), and field-
focus on the Ngerengere River sub-catchment based observations, while secondary data were sourced
(Figure 1). The Ngerengere River (7°03′S 38°31′E), from peer–reviewed literature and government reports

Volume 22 Issue 5 (2025) 114 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025180137