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FVC and climate in Yarkand Basin

be employed to optimize feature extraction and model persistence (Hurst coefficient = 0.81), driven
fitting of remote sensing data, thereby enabling it to by oasis agriculture and ecological restoration,
more closely approximate ground-based observations ensuring sustained FVC stability across the region.
across spatial and temporal scales. This positive persistence underscored the long-term
This study primarily examined the spatiotemporal effectiveness of environmental management in
variation characteristics of FVC and its correlation maintaining FVC, particularly in oasis areas, while
with climatic factors in the Yarkand River Basin from highlighting the need for continued conservation
2000 to 2023. Future research should further integrate efforts to address vulnerabilities in desert and
anthropogenic indicators, such as population density, mountainous zones.
industrial development, and socioeconomic activities, to (iv) Climatic influences: Temperature negatively
better capture the human footprint on FVC. In addition, impacted crop land and forest FVC (highly significant
time series decomposition methods could be applied to negative correlation: 21.97% for farmland,
separate seasonal components from long-term trends, 20.45% for forests), especially in Zepu County
which would help reveal intra-annual fluctuations (39.44% negative correlation), due to enhanced
in vegetation dynamics and provide a more refined evapotranspiration. Precipitation positively drove
understanding of temporal variation patterns. grassland and forest FVC (highly significant
positive correlation: 47.91% for grasslands, 46.75%
5. Conclusion for forests), with a 1–2-month lag effect notably in
Shache and Yecheng Counties (positive correlation:
In summary, this study integrated MODIS NDVI data ~60%). The regional temperature rise (from 8.4°C
and climate observations from 2000 to 2023, utilizing to 9.4°C) and precipitation increase (from 35 mm
pixel dichotomy modeling, Sen+Mann–Kendall trend to 49 mm) aligned with FVC improvements,
analysis, and Pearson correlation to examine the emphasizing the climate’s critical role.
spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic drivers of FVC (v) Practical implications and scientific contributions:
in the Yarkand River Basin. The key findings are as These findings provided actionable insights for
follows: ecological conservation and sustainable water
(i) Significant spatial heterogeneity: FVC exhibited resource management in arid regions. The high
pronounced spatial variability across the Yarkand FVC stability in oasis areas (e.g., Tumushuke
River Basin, with agricultural land and forests City, slope = 0.009, R = 0.819) supported scaling
2
showing high coverage (51.75% and 60.81% irrigation and afforestation policies, while bare
medium-high to high coverage, respectively) land’s high volatility (74.51%) called for drought-
compared to bare land’s low coverage (95.58%). tolerant species and windbreak plantations.
Yecheng County exhibited higher FVC (33.80% For climate adaptation, Shache and Yecheng
high coverage) compared to Bachu County (79.80% Counties should optimize water allocation, while Bachu
low coverage), primarily due to its favorable and Makit Counties require enhanced afforestation. The
topography and irrigation practices. These county- study’s long-term (2000–2023) multi-scale analysis and
level and land-use-specific patterns provided novel findings, such as the precipitation lag effect and
critical insights into spatially targeted ecological strong regional persistence, advanced the understanding
restoration in arid environments. of vegetation-climate interactions, offering a replicable
(ii) Temporal trends and stabilization: FVC increased framework for arid ecosystem research globally (e.g.,
significantly from 0.16 to 0.22 since 2000, supporting Sustainable Development Goal 13: Climate
stabilizing at 0.21–0.23 post-2010, with grasslands Action).
and croplands showing substantial growth
(grassland FVC: 0.26 to 0.40; farmland FVC: 0.67 Acknowledgments
to 0.77). Bare land FVC remained low (0.03 to
0.06), indicating limited ecological recovery. This None.
trend, supported by oasis expansion and water
management, highlighted the efficacy of human Funding
interventions in enhancing FVC.
(iii) Persistence dynamics: The Hurst index analysis of This work was supported by the Sub-project of the
the long-term time series revealed strong positive Major Science and Technology Special Project of

Volume 22 Issue 6 (2025) 239 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025350269