Page 190 - AJWEP-v22i2

Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution. Vol. 22, No. 2 (2025), pp. 184-203.
doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080049

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Mitigating the impacts of climate change: A case study of
the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Odirile Sefolo , Ilesanmi Daniyan * , Kemlall Ramdass ,
3
1
2
Oluwatoyin Esther Akinbowale , and Humbulani Simon Phuluwa 5
4
1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and the Built Environmen, Tshwane University of
Technology, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa
2 Department of Mechatronics Engineering, College of Engineering, Bells University of Technology, Ota, Ogun
State, Nigeria
3 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, College of Science, Engineering and Technology,
University of South Africa, Florida, Gauteng, South Africa
4 Faculty of Economics and Finance, Tshwane University of Technology, Pretoria, Gauteng, South Africa
5 Department of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, College of Science, Engineering and Technology,
University of South Africa, Florida, Gauteng, South Africa
*Corresponding author: Ilesanmi Daniyan (iadaniyan@bellsuniversity.edu.ng)

Received: February 19, 2025; 1st revised: March 12, 2025; 2nd revised: March 30, 2025; 3rd revised: April 3, 2025;
4th revised: April 3, 2025; Accepted: April 8, 2025; Published online: April 24, 2025

Abstract: Climate change poses a major global challenge which affects human health and livelihood, ecosystem,
critical sectors and infrastructure among others. The objective of this research is to investigate and mitigate the
impacts of climate change in the City of Tshwane. A combination of quantitative and case study approaches was
employed, with datasets obtained from the South African Weather Service, the City of Tshwane, and the Auditor-
General. The data were modeled using a combination of discrete event simulation and system dynamics within
the AnyLogic (version 8.2.3) environment. The results showed an increase in climate trends from 1981 to 2022,
suggesting a growing frequency of heat waves, heavier rainfall, and more frequent floods, among other phenomena.
The study recommends the use of simulation approaches to assess the impacts of climate change on the city’s
infrastructure during the planning process. The findings can assist the City of Tshwane in planning for future climate
scenarios, enabling stakeholders to develop sustainable strategies for climate change adaptation and mitigation,
with the goal of creating a climate change-resilient city. If the suggested climate change policies are implemented,
there would be a 15% annual decrease in extreme events (including excessive temperature, flooding, and drought),
a 3% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, and a 25% decrease in gross domestic product loss, alongside a 15%
improvement in infrastructure performance.

Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Infrastructure; Simulation

1. Introduction planet over time. The City of Tshwane recognizes
climate change as a significant challenge, as failure to
Climate change refers to changes in the average address its impacts over the years could have severe
temperature and weather patterns of a region or the consequences. Roads and stormwater infrastructures are
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Volume 22 Issue 2 (2025) 184 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080049