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Sefolo, et al.

exposing people to various risks. Some studies indicate The use of system dynamics (SD) modeling for
that inadequate drainage systems are one of the major climate change simulations has also been reported. For
causes of the destruction of road and stormwater example, Gohari et al. employed the SD simulation
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infrastructure. 18,19 Nevertheless, climate change also technique to assess climate change adaptation strategies
contributes significantly to the destruction of road for water conservation in Iran. The study found
and stormwater infrastructure, leading to increased that improvements in infrastructure, effective water
rainfall intensity, flooding, and loss of ecosystems and management, and regulation of the ecosystem could
biodiversity. The impact of climate change further reduce water stress in the country. Existing studies have
extends to the destruction of runoff that reaches roads also applied the SD technique to investigate the impacts
and drainage systems, thereby causing flooding of of climate change on water resource systems and to
highways. Another area of concern is the scarcity model complex systems. 26-29
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of water resources due to climate change and poor Unlike the singular SD technique employed in
management. Anekwe et al. investigated the impacts previous studies, 25-29 the present research goes beyond
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of climate change variability on water resources in the using a single approach and demonstrates the applicability
Jozini municipality, South Africa, using conventional of an integrated modeling and simulation approach
and machine learning approaches on precipitation for investigating the impacts of climate change. This
and temperature datasets. The results indicated that represents advancement in methodological approaches
variations in rainfall and temperature have serious by enabling time- and cost-effective modeling and
consequences on water levels in the dam, negatively simulation of complex phenomena, such as the impact
affecting water availability in the municipality. These of climate change, which can facilitate better policy
findings may assist stakeholders in formulating and formulation and informed decision-making.
implementing policies to promote water availability, However, the combination of the discrete event
particularly in the construction of modern dams. simulation (DES) and SD to investigate climate change
Ray stated that climate change negatively affects impacts has not been sufficiently reported in existing
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Africa’s economies, leading to a decline in GDP, loss of literature. Thus, the novelty of this study lies in its
business and livelihoods, and increased investment in the use of an integrated DES and SD approach to model
repair of damaged infrastructure and the development and simulate climate change activities and mitigation
of countermeasures. strategies in South Africa (specifically the City of
The costs associated with infrastructure repair and Tshwane) over the next 10 years. The findings of this
recovery from heavy rainfall in Cape Town in 2011 study can assist the City of Tshwane in planning for
exceeded rand (R) 20 million. In 2022, the flooding in future climate scenarios and enable stakeholders to
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KZN resulted in the loss of 440 lives and the destruction develop sustainable means of climate change adaptation
of road infrastructure worth R5.6 billion. Comins or mitigation in the pursuit of a climate-resilient city.
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noted that KZN would lose 1.8% of its annual GDP Although some studies have been conducted on
due to the flooding. Existing studies highlight the need the effects of climate change in South Africa, the
for integrated climate impact modeling, as it allows for investigation of its impacts using modeling and
a detailed understanding of the interactions between simulation approaches has not been sufficiently
climate change, human life, the physical environment, discussed. Thus, the objectives of this study are to
and socio-economic activities. These models also investigate and mitigate the effects of climate change in
suggest possible adaptation and mitigation approaches South Africa, using the City of Tshwane as a case study,
that could help policymakers reduce risks and and to examine the impacts of climate change policy
vulnerabilities. 22,23 Ciscar and Dowling emphasized frameworks on the city’s infrastructure management.
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that existing integrated climate impact models have been The following research questions underpin this
implemented in only a few countries to capture a limited study: (i) What are the potential climate change risks
scope of climate change impacts, underscoring the need and possible mitigation strategies? (ii) What are the
for empirical studies on the application of these models, effects of climate change policy implementation on
especially in developing economies with increasing the city’s infrastructure management? (iii) How can
energy demands. Ciscar and Dowling further pointed the impacts of climate change on roads and stormwater
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out that the effects of extreme weather events, such as infrastructure in South Africa be effectively mitigated?
floods, require more attention and the use of different This research contributes to a better understanding of
modeling techniques to capture their impacts. the impacts of climate change on roads and stormwater

Volume 22 Issue 2 (2025) 186 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080049