Page 196 - AJWEP-v22i2

Sefolo, et al.

country is relatively dry, with an annual average rainfall average, characterized by a reduction in soil moisture
of about 464 mm, compared to the global average and groundwater levels.
rainfall of 990 mm. In addition, according to Writer, a
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drought in South Africa is defined as a period when an 2.5. Analysis, modeling, and simulation of the
area experiences precipitation or rainfall lower than the datasets
The data were analyzed descriptively as follows:
(i) Creating themes such as “evaluation of bias in the
dataset,” “annual rainfall in the City of Tshwane,”
and “modeling and simulation of the climate change
and the mitigation strategy,” and categorizing data
accordingly.
(ii) Elaborating on the meaning and significance of
these themes as they relate to climate change and its
effect on road and stormwater infrastructure in the
City of Tshwane.
(iii) Using graphs and plots, such as regression plots, pie
Figure 4. Average rainfall in the City of Tshwane charts, and simulation software, to interpret the data
from 1981 to 2022 37 collected from the SAWS and the City of Tshwane
on weather and climate change.
(iv) Utilizing regression analysis to compare the
relationships between variables (GHG emissions
and extreme events, GHG emissions and GDP loss,
rainfall, and infrastructure performance). Regression
analysis employs data from two variables to make
future projections. This method will allow the City
of Tshwane to develop specific strategies, enabling
meaningful predictions regarding extreme events,
loss of GDP, infrastructure performance, heavy
rainfall, and increases in GHG emissions.
Figure 5. Average monthly rainfall in the City of The consideration of GHG emissions as a variable
Tshwane from 1981 to 2022 37 stems from the fact that they may contribute to
temperature increases. The more GHGs are emitted,
the higher the likelihood of an increase in atmospheric
temperature, as the gases trap heat, leading to global
warming. Furthermore, as indicated in the literature,
extreme events due to climate change can disrupt lives,
businesses, and livelihoods, thereby resulting in a
reduction in GDP.
AnyLogic software was used in the study because
it is suitable for modeling and simulating events and
business applications. AnyLogic simulation models
enable engineers and managers to gain deeper insights
and optimize complex systems and processes across
Figure 6. Average temperature variations in the City various industries. The AnyLogic modeling and
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of Tshwane (from 1981 to 2022) 37 simulation technique allows researchers to set the

Table 1. Average seasonal and annual rainfall (mm) in the City of Tshwane from 1961 to 1990

Variable Winter Spring Summer Autumn Average
Rainfall (mm) 13 192 325 141 671
Source: City of Tshwane .
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Volume 22 Issue 2 (2025) 190 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080049