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Global Health Econ Sustain

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Implication of close contact testing in

eliminating an epidemic: Application to
COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea and New

York City

Shirlene Patricia Vega-Royero and Gustavo Javier Sibona *
1
2
1 SISCO, Universidad Católica Luis Amigó, Transversal 51A #67B-90, Medellín, Colombia, Argentina
2 IFEG, CONICET and FAMAF, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Medina Allende s/n, Córdoba,
5000, Argentina

Abstract

After the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic, temporary stability in the disease
spread dynamics was observed in many regions. This behavior can potentially be
attributed to the measures implemented to contain the spread, particularly close
contact testing. We propose a deterministic mathematical model that simulates the
dynamic spread of the disease while considering the actions of the public health
system. The developed model achieves a non-forced balance in daily confirmed
cases, reproducing the observed epidemic behavior during the COVID-19 outbreak in
Academic editor: South Korea and New York City. Our finding indicated that, although the quasi-steady
Mihajlo Jakovljevic M.D. Ph.D. MAE state behavior can only be attained within a certain range of model parameters, an
*Corresponding author: increase in the health system’s interventions does not eliminate the epidemic. We
Gustavo Javier Sibona conclude that the observed stationary state of daily COVID-19 cases does not result
(gsibona@unc.edu.ar) from setting the basic reproductive number to one. Instead, it emerges as a natural
Citation: Vega-Royero, S.P., & consequence of the policies implemented by authorities to mitigate its spread.
Sibona, G.J. (2023). Implication of
close contact testing in eliminating
an epidemic: Application to Keywords: Close contact tracing; COVID-19; Mathematical model; Health system
COVID-19 epidemic in South Korea
and New York City. Global Health
Econ Sustain, 1(1): 0873.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.0873
1. Introduction
Received: April 28, 2023
Accepted: July 10, 2023 After its appearance in the Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2019, the new coronavirus
SARS-Cov-2 has spread throughout the world, resulting in a global COVID-19 pandemic
Published Online: July 25, 2023
that has infected hundreds of millions and caused millions of deaths (the World Health
Copyright: © 2023 Author(s). Organization, 2020). The principal characteristics of the pandemic are a high transmission
This is an Open Access article rate and significant variations in disease severity (Esakandari et al., 2020). Despite travel
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution restrictions imposed worldwide during the initial stages of the pandemic, the virus still
License, permitting distribution, and managed to spread throughout the world. In response, governments had implemented
reproduction in any medium, which a variety of measures to contain the spread before the vaccine was introduced. The non-
provided that the original work is
properly cited. pharmaceutical measures included general quarantine, isolation of infected individuals,
travel restrictions, contact tracing, widespread testing, social distancing, and optimized
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with patient triage (Anderson et al., 2020).
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional The duration of the evolution of an epidemic in a specific region is influenced by
affiliations. several factors, including the virus’s incubation period, infectiousness, and the average

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2023) 1 https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.0873