Page 153 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Family planning and its economic outcomes

opportunities in the workforce may still be constrained by lack of willingness aligns with Coale’s three preconditions
the demands of caregiving, particularly given the lack of of fertility change (ready, willing, and able) as outlined
siblings to share these responsibilities. in the European Fertility Project. Research suggests that
Population aging has broader demographic low fertility in China is now more a matter of choice than
implications, including fewer births, more deaths, and policy restrictions (Wang et al., 2016; Attané, 2016:530).
negative population growth (Kerr & Beaujot, 2016:205). Thus, the “three-child” policy is unlikely to significantly
According to the World Population Prospects 2022 increase birth rates, as was the case with the “two-child”
(United Nations, 2022), China’s population began to policy (Wang et al., 2016). Couples who are responsible
decline in 2022. Projections estimate a population for supporting two sets of parents and raising a child are
reduction of 7.88% (112.3 million) by 2050 and a 46.2% understandably reluctant to take on the additional burden
reduction (658.3 million) by 2100 compared to 2020. This of having more children.
decline could create substantial economic challenges. With Even if the “three-child” policy succeeds, it would take
fewer workers, the government may struggle to finance the approximately two decades for these children to enter the
needs of a growing elderly population living longer lives. labor force. In the interim, the child dependency ratio would
A shrinking working-age population could also reduce increase, placing additional pressure on the working-age
consumer spending, further straining the economy in population to support both children and elderly parents
China and beyond. The industrial strategy that China had simultaneously (Lee, 2013:55; Cai et al., 2018). Moreover,
relied on for decades – leveraging a growing labor force higher fertility rates would exacerbate environmental
to escape poverty and achieve economic power – can no pressures and strain natural resources (Basten & Jiang,
longer be sustained due to the shrinking labor force and 2015: S98). Each additional child reduces the resources
graying population. available to other citizens and will not contribute
Overall, China faces increasing economic challenges economically until they reach adulthood (Howden &
associated with its demographic transformation, posing a Zhou, 2015:243). Furthermore, rapid population growth
substantial burden on both Chinese society – characterized coupled with industrial development over the past
by a limited social welfare system – and the working- 40 years, has already caused water shortages in major cities
age population, many of whom are the only child in and a scarcity of arable land nationwide, indicating critical
their families (Wang et al., 2016:84). To slow the pace of bottlenecks for sustainable development (Peng, 2011:586).
population aging and increase the working-age population, To increase fertility by implementing a “three-child”
the Chinese government has dramatically shifted its family policy will inevitably worsen food supply challenges, water
planning policies from population control to pronatalist shortages, and environmental degradation as more scarce
measures. This shift began with the loosening of the “one- resources are diverted to supporting a growing population
child” policy in 2015, followed by the introduction of the of new births. However, to analyze the specific impacts of
“two-child” policy in 2016. When the “two-child” policy family planning shifts on economic growth, government
failed to significantly increase fertility rates, the government revenue, tax revenue, and social expenditure, we need
implemented the “three-child” policy in mid-2021 (Feng much more economic and social variables beyond census
et al., 2019; Peng, 2011:586). However, it remains uncertain data used in this project. This is one limitation of this study
whether the “three-child” policy can effectively address which should be addressed in the future.
these demographic challenges. In general, public response To address the population crisis in China, a
to the pronatalist policies has been lukewarm. straightforward approach to reducing the financial burden
Raising a child in China is expensive, and the current on the pension system would be to increase the retirement
working-age population – many of whom are the only age, an idea that has garnered broad agreement. The current
child – must simultaneously plan for their parents who retirement age in China – 60 for men and 55 for women
are near retirement ages and funding their own children’s – was established in the early 1950s when life expectancy
education. These challenges are compounded by costly at birth was only about 40 years (Cai et al., 2018; Peng,
daycare services and a pervasive culture of long working 2011:585). With life expectancy at birth rising to 78.2 years
hours (Wee, 2021). In addition, many couples now believe in 2020, raising the retirement age appears feasible. Many
that having one child is sufficient, while some express no countries have already set the retirement age above 60.
interest in having children at all. Culturally, individuals of For instance, Canada’s retirement age for both genders
childbearing age in China are not “willing” to have large is 65 and is set to increase to 67 within 15 years (Kerr &
families due to a perceived lack of benefits or advantages in Beaujot, 2016). Extending the retirement age offers a
doing so (Li, 2023; Le & Yang, 2023; Dai & Yan, 2023). This “triple dividend”: boosting the labor force, improving

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 147 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859