Page 151 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Family planning and its economic outcomes

The rising proportion of the working-age population population – exhibited an upward trend followed by a
and the declining proportion of the child population, decline between 1953 and 2020, regardless of whether they
along with the reduction in the total dependency ratio, are measured in absolute numbers or proportions. Only the
created a “demographic dividend” in China (Wolf Jr. et al., retired population followed a consistent upward trajectory.
2011). This demographic shift, characterized by a growing These trends collectively point to a single outcome:
working-age population, contributes to economic growth population shrinkage across all measures except the old-
by boosting both supply and demand. The reduced child age population. Population aging in China reflects not only
population also facilitated accelerated capital accumulation the growth of the retired population but also the aging of
through lower spending on dependents (Johnston the labor force, as evidenced by the rising labor-force-
et al., 2016). These demographic changes, spurred by the exit population and the declining labor-force-entrance
implementation of family planning policies, resulted in population. These changes signal a shrinking labor force
more workers and fewer dependents, thereby improving in the coming years. Furthermore, the “demographic
average living standards. Research indicates that this dividend,” generated by declining fertility levels and a mass
“demographic dividend” accounted for over one-fourth of of young workers entering the workforce with relatively
per capita GDP growth in China from 1965 to 2005 (Peng, few familial responsibilities since the 1979 reforms, has
2011). Other studies estimate that for every 1% decrease in reversed since approximately 2015 (Lee, 2013). The rapid
the dependency ratio due to an expanding workforce share, increase in the retired population, particularly among
per capita GDP increased by 0.115% (Song et al., 2016). the oldest-old, indicates that social services – including
However, the halt in the decline of the total dependency healthcare, social security, and pension systems – will face
ratio around 2012, coupled with the shrinking working-age significantly greater pressure in the near future.
population beginning around 2014, marked the end of the
“demographic dividend” in China. The aging process has 4. Concluding remarks
since accelerated, driven by the retirement of the second Using population census data from China, this study
baby boomer cohort. This shift poses significant challenges conducted a descriptive analysis of the variation in the age
as China transitions from a period of demographic structure of the Chinese population from 1953 to 2020.
advantage to one of demographic constraint. A unique feature of this study is the use of a practical
Will the savings from declining child dependency definition of the retired population, operationalized based
offset the rising government expenditures on old-age on the social reality in China – a specific retirement scheme
dependency? To address this question, this study uses age- implemented by the Chinese government. This approach
specific population data from China population censuses clearly reflects the true size of the economic burden on the
to estimate the required public expenditure on education, pension system. The main conclusion of this study is that
healthcare, and social security. These estimates are based the Chinese population has transformed dramatically from
on Formula I and the three assumptions outlined in the a young to an old demographic, driven by family planning
methodology section (Figure 3). From Table 3, we can policies and socioeconomic developments. The pace of
population aging in China is significantly faster than in any
see that while the total dependency ratio in 2020 remains
lower than its 1953 level (81%), the shift from child to other countries. Furthermore, with historically low fertility
old-age dependency has driven a significant rise in public levels, the population faces labor force shrinkage and
expenditure. By 2020, public expenditures were 3.10 times potential negative growth. Variations in child, retired, and
total dependency ratios resulting from the changes in age
as they were in 1953. This demonstrates that the reduction structure between 1953 and 2020 reveal a rapid increase
in the total dependency ratio from 1953 to 2020 does not in public expenditure due to the growing proportion of
necessarily translate into a decline in public expenditures the retired population, despite the total dependency ratio
or governmental costs. Although assumption (3) is likely being lower in 2020 than in 1953. Private costs incurred
close to reality, assumptions (1) and (2) are less realistic. by individuals and families have been excluded from this
These assumptions do not account for the high inflation study because the focus of this study is about the public
rates in China or the rising expenditures on education, burden of population aging in China, while research does
healthcare, social security, and other social services. indicate that public costs are higher for the aged, private
Consequently, the actual costs associated with changes in costs tend to be higher for the young (Kerr & Beaujot,
age structure, dependency ratios, and population aging are 2016). Therefore, population aging involves a shift in the
significantly higher than these estimates suggested.
burden from private to public sector, like from education
In summary, the analyses above indicate that most to pension and healthcare. Moreover, the shrinking and
measures studied in this project – except for the retired aging labor force is becoming a barrier of economic growth

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 145 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859