Page 146 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Family planning and its economic outcomes

the “one-child” policy. Local officials were evaluated partly be allowed to have more than two children, ending the
based on their success in ensuring compliance (Yardley, “two-child” policy. However, this was not successful in
2008). However, enforcement levels varied, with urban significantly increasing the country’s already declining
couples generally limited to one child unless they paid birth rate. By July 2021, all family size limits and penalties
significant fines, while rural families were often allowed a for exceeding them were abolished, marking a significant
second child if the first was a girl. Minority families were policy shift (Cheng, 2021). When this transition occurred,
typically permitted two or more children (Johnson, 2016; China’s population had reached approximately 1.41 billion,
Follett, 2020). underscoring the government’s increasing concern over
Between 1990 and 2010, China’s population grew from 1.13 demographic challenges, and the emergence of the “three-
billion to 1.34 billion, with a very low total fertility rate. By 2008, child” policy nationwide.
officials began to consider easing the one-child restriction, Overall, China’s family planning policies have
although family planning policies remained in place (Yardley, not followed a linear trajectory. As Rodriguez (2023)
2008). Restrictions were gradually relaxed, allowing couples observes, the policy process in China has been “circuitous,
with specific qualifications to have two children in 2013, and convoluted, and contested.” Over the 70 years since the
then being extended to all families where one spouse was an establishment of the People’s Republic of China, the
only child in 2014 (Howden & Zhou, 2015). policies have alternated between strict population control
measures and more permissive approaches. The transition
In 2015, China ended the “one-child” policy, announcing
that all married couples would be allowed to have two from the anti-natalist “one-child” policy implemented
children starting January 1, 2016 (Buckley, 2015; Attané, in 1980, when the population was under one billion, to
the pronatalist “three-child” policy in 2021, when the
2016; Feng et al., 2019). This policy aimed to address the population exceeded 1.4 billion, represents a rare and
rapid aging of the labor force and reverse declining birth unprecedented reversal in family planning policy. What
rates, in light of China’s population growth rate being well prompted such significant policy changes in China?
under the global rate from 2010 to 2015. Despite these
changes, having three or more children remained illegal. 2. Data and methods
Women in some areas were still subjected to periodic state-
mandated pregnancy tests, potential parents were required This study has utilized China’s census data since the
to obtain birth permits and single motherhood remained establishment of People’s Republic of China in 1949. There
prohibited (Follett, 2020; CECC, 2018; 2019). have been seven population censuses: conducted in 1953,
1964, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, respectively .
1
During this period, the Ministry of Health and the However, the second census in 1964 was excluded from
National Population and Family Planning Commission analysis because 4,876,607 individuals (0.702% of the total
were merged into the National Health and Family Planning population) did not report their ages.
Commission and were later renamed the National Health
Commission (State Council, 2013; 2018). This signaled The analysis focuses on age- and gender-specific
a gradual shift in focus from strict population control to population sizes to examine changes in the following key
broader health issues related to an aging population (Qi & measures:
•
Population aged 0: Defined as the population aged 0 at
Wang, 2018). Unlike the “one-child” policy, the “two-child” the timing of the population census.
policy was not a mandatory requirement as it was opened • Child population: Defined as the population aged
to any eligible families who wished to have a second child. 0 – 14.
However, the “two-child” policy was not quite successful in • Working-age population: Defined as the population
increasing the fertility rate in China. An increase in birth aged 15 – 54 for females and 15 – 59 for males.
rate only occurred in 2016 and the birth rate decreased again • Retired population: Defined as the population aged 55
in the following years, reaching the lowest point in 2018, and over for females and 60 and over for males.
with only 16.85 million births (United Nations, 2022). In • Child dependency ratio: Defined as the ratio of the
2019, the birth rate even reached a 60-year low, which led child population to the working-age population,
the Chinese government to argue that the country had no multiplied by 100. This indicates the number of
need to be concerned about overpopulation (Leng, 2020).
1 The timing of China’s population census was July 1 in
Because data from the Seventh National Population the census from 1953 to 1990, which has been changed
Census showed only 12 million births in 2020, the to November 1 since the census in 2000. This change has
lowest number since 1961 (Wee, 2021), in May 2021, made the growth rate between 1990 and 2000 a little bit
the Politburo, the Communist Party’s top decision- overestimated as the total population in 2000 was counted
making body, announced that all Chinese couples would 4 months late within a 10 year window.

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 140 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859