Page 144 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
Understanding the shift of family planning in

China from the economic perspective

1
Jianye Liu * and Hongyan Liu 2
1 Department of Sociology, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, Canada
2 China Population Development Research Centre, Beijing, China

Abstract

Using data from six population censuses in China, this study analyzes the variations
in the age structure of the Chinese population from 1953 to 2020. A unique
aspect of this research is the redefinition of the old-age population – specifically
considering the retired population (aged 55 and over for females and 60 and over
for males) – which is tailored to reflect the social realities in China. This approach
more accurately represents the economic burden of China’s current pension system.
Our primary conclusion is that the Chinese population has undergone a dramatic
transformation from being predominantly young to increasingly older, largely
due to the implementation of family planning policies and overall socioeconomic
development. Population aging in China encompasses not only the growing retired
demographic but also the aging labor force, marked by an increasing number of
individuals exiting the workforce and a decline in those entering. Moreover, the
*Corresponding author: pace of population aging in China is significantly faster than in any other country.
Jianye Liu In addition, China faces a shrinking labor force and potential negative growth,
(jliu8@lakeheadu.ca) exacerbated by historically low fertility rates. Finally, the changes in the child, retired,
Citation: Liu, J. & Liu, H. (2025). and total dependency ratios from 1953 to 2020 illustrate a rapid increase in public
Understanding the shift of family expenditure, driven by the growing weight of the retired population, even though
planning in China from the
economic perspective. International the total dependency ratio in 2020 is lower than it was in 1953.
Journal of Population Studies,
11(3): 138-150.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859 Keywords: Population census; Family planning policies; Population aging; Retired
population; Economic burden; Dependency ratio
Received: December 2, 2024
Revised: January 20, 2025
Accepted: March 5, 2025
1. Introduction
Published online: March 19, 2025
Family planning policies have been widely adopted globally to contend with population
Copyright: © 2025 Author(s).
This is an Open-Access article changes. In China, the “one-child” policy, implemented in 1979 when the population size
distributed under the terms of the was under one billion, successfully slowed down China’s population growth; however, this
Creative Commons Attribution led to unintended consequences such as a gender imbalance and an aging population.
License, permitting distribution,
and reproduction in any medium, Interestingly, when the population size in China reached 1.39 billion in 2015, the “one-
provided the original work is child” policy was replaced with the “two-child” policy on January 1, 2016, and more
properly cited. recently, in 2021, replaced with a “three-child” policy when the population size exceeded
Publisher’s Note: AccScience 1.4 billion (National Bureau of Statistics, 2021). Under the “three-child” policy, married
Publishing remains neutral with couples are allowed to have up to three children. Through its history, China experienced
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional rapid and unusual shifts in family planning policies: when the population size was smaller
affiliations. (<1 billion), a very strict and coercive “one-child” policy was implemented; while when

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 138 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859