Page 145 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Family planning and its economic outcomes

the population grew larger (more than 1.4 billion), a much establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949.
looser “three-child” policy was applied. To our knowledge, Initially, the Chinese communist government condemned
China is the first and only country to make such significant birth control, banned imports of contraceptives, and
policy adjustments within 40 years of human history. This encouraged people to have many children. This resulted in
study seeks to understand and explain these remarkable high birth rates which coupled with low death rates, leading
policy changes in China. to rapid natural population growth (Howden & Zhou,
A simple explanation is that the “three-child” policy 2015). By 1953, with the recommendation of Dr. Yinchu
was introduced as a response to concerns about an aging Ma, President of Peking University, family planning policies
population and a shrinking workforce in China (Follett, were approved and recommended by the government, as
2020). One of the inevitable consequences of the “one- the population had grown by approximately 100 million,
child” policy is population aging, a phenomenon widely with an annual increase rate of over 2.2% between 1949
documented by researchers in China and worldwide and 1953 (Attané, 2002).
(Follett, 2020; Zhang, 2017; Rajan, 1994; Lee, 2013). However, in 1957, Dr. Ma was widely criticized during
Population aging is a prevalent demographic phenomenon the “Anti-Rightist Campaign” and was forced to resign
and an inescapable consequence of the demographic as President of Peking University in 1960. In 1958, Mao
transition from a state of high fertility and mortality in Zedong launched the Great Leap Forward and promoted
traditional societies, to one of low fertility and mortality in population growth again, claiming it was still better to
modern ones. At present, more than one-third of countries have more people – resulting in a baby boom in 1962. The
globally are experiencing aging populations (Johnston Second National Population Census in 1964 revealed a
et al., 2016). However, what made the situation in China so total population of approximately 700 million in mainland
grave that the government was determined to abandon its China, an increase of 127 million since the first census in
fundamental “one-child” policy? 1953. Although family planning was reintroduced in 1962,
China’s population changes are greatly affected by the it proved largely ineffective and was further disrupted by
family planning policy, which include China’s population the Cultural Revolution in 1966, resulting in sustained
size, the current low birth-rate, aging population, and the high rates of population growth, the so called “the second
shrinkage of the working-age population, and thus, have a childbearing wave” in China. By 1971, with the country’s
significant impact on economic and social development. population reaching 852 million, the government began
The discussion of changes in the family planning policy to more effectively promote family planning, causing the
in this article provides supporting evidence for the annual population growth rate to drop below 2% after
background of China’s population changes. Drawing on 1974. The policies of this era encouraged families to have
six population censuses from 1953 to 2020 in China, this no more than two children and were summarized in the
study endeavors to address this question by analyzing slogan “Later, Longer, and Fewer.” This referred to later
the significant increase in public expenditures on social marriages and childbearing, larger birth spacing (at least
support resulting from changes in the country’s age 3 years between births), and lower fertility (no more than
structure. This paper examines the variation in population two children). Another slogan, “one is not many, two is
age structure over time, considering factors such as the just right, and three is too many,” emphasized population
number of population aged 0, the working-age population, control through setting growth targets for both urban and
child and old-age dependency ratios, senior population rural areas.
size, and more to illustrate the demographic changes in This policy later evolved into the “one-child” policy in
st
th
China between the 1 and 7 censuses. Moreover, this 1979, officially implemented nationwide in 1980, aiming
research uniquely employs a practical definition of the old- to curb population growth to zero by the year 2000 as
age population – retired individuals – to assess the variation the population size approached one billion (Goldman,
in public expenditures required by these groups. The paper 2021). The policy was strictly enforced, with exceptions
begins with a brief history of family planning policy in for certain ethnic minorities, rural families, and “two-
China, followed by a discussion of the consequences of its child” experimental regions such as Jiuquan in Gansu
implementation, study data and methods, key findings, province and Yicheng in Shanxi province (along with four
and concludes with a discussion of potential implications. other regions). By 1982, China’s population reached one
billion, and family planning became a fundamental policy
1.1. Brief history of family planning in China and constitutional duty for every citizen. Subsequent

China’s family planning policies have alternated between administrations (after Deng Xiaoping’s), including those
pronatalist and anti-natalist approaches since the led by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, continued promoting

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 139 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859