Page 147 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Family planning and its economic outcomes

children supported by every 100 working-age The second part examines the relationship between the
individuals. total dependency ratio and relative public expenditures.
• Retired dependency ratio: Defined as the ratio of the The variation in weight of child and retired dependency
retired population to the working-age population, ratios within the total dependency ratio significantly
multiplied by 100. This indicates the number of retirees influences public expenditures, as these groups have
supported by every 100 working-age individuals. different needs. High child dependency ratios are
• Total dependency ratio: Defined as the sum of the associated with increased public spending on education,
child and retired dependency ratios, indicating the while high retired dependency ratios require greater public
total number of dependents (children and retirees) expenditures on healthcare and social security (Kerr &
supported by every 100 working-age individuals. Beaujot, 2016). With the declining child dependency and
• Labor-force-entrance group (LF-entrance) or young rising retired dependency ratios, the state would have to
workers: Defined as the population aged 15 – 24. These prioritize expenditures on health care and social security
individuals provide critical value to the labor force over education. Research suggests that per capita public
by bringing newly acquired skills and adaptability expenditures (including health, education, and social
(Basten & Jiang, 2015). security) for the old-age population are two to three times
• Labor-force-exit group (LF-exit) group or older of those for the child population (Kerr & Beaujot, 2016).
workers: Defined as the population aged 45 – 54 for Assuming (1) per capita public expenditures of child and
females and 50 – 59 for males. old-age populations remain constant from 1953 to 2020,
(2) these expenditures for the old-age population are
While most of these measures are widely used in 2.5 times of those for the child population, and (3) child
demographic research, this study introduces a unique public expenditures are set as the baseline (1 unit), the
definition of the “retired population” based on China’s combined per capita public expenditure can be estimated
specific retirement regulations. Unlike the United Nations using the following formula:
definition of old-age population (65 and over) for both
genders, this study defines the retired population as Public expenditure = Child population × 1 + Retired
those eligible for pensions under China’s compulsory population × 2.5 (I)
retirement scheme, which sets retirement ages at 60 for This formula is only used for relative comparisons
men, 50 for female manual laborers (the majority), 55 for under the given assumptions and does not provide
female professionals/cadres (including teachers, medical absolute financial values or practical meaning. To simplify
personnel, administrators and other professionals), and data presentation, the 1953 census data was used as a
60 for female with high academic ranks. That is, the baseline for comparison, and the relative sizes of measures
population eligible to receive pension in China is defined as defined above were calculated as ratios of their values
as the population aged 50, 55, or 60 for female urban to those in 1953. Line charts illustrate these changes,
employees and 60 for male urban employees, urban highlighting variations in population structure, public
unemployed residents, and rural residents (Feng et al., expenditures, and the impact of family planning policies
2019; Cai et al., 2018; Peng, 2011). This scheme persisted over time.
despite the dramatic socioeconomic transformations over
the last seven decades. This definition is more appropriate 3. Key findings
for this study in assessing the true demand for old-age care 3.1. Variation of age structure between 1953 and
and the burden on the pension system, although it may 2020
slightly underestimate the retired female population due
to early retirements among manual laborers, who make up From the first census in 1953 to the latest one in 2020,
more than 50% of the total retired female population. China’s total population size increased by 1.48 times, with
an annual growth rate of 1.36% based on the assumption
The analysis is divided into two parts: the first part of exponential growth over this 67-year period (Figure 1).
involves a descriptive analysis of the aforementioned Growth rates were significantly higher before the
measures, utilizing census data to display trends over implementation of family planning policies than after,
time. As census data provide complete population counts, including the 10-year Cultural Revolution period (1966
hypothesis testing is not required. A notable limitation of – 1976), a major part of the second childbearing wave in
this approach is the irregular timing of censuses, which China (Zha, 1991; Wu, 1988; Zhou & Yu, 1992). In addition,
provides data points only for census years and not for the China’s population growth rate closely mirrored the global
years in between, preventing precise determination of population growth rate of approximately 2% before the
timing when trends change direction. third census in 1982. However, after the third census,

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 141 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859