Page 149 - IJPS-11-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Family planning and its economic outcomes

over 14 times in proportion (from 0.08% to 1.09%). They the future labor force (Figure 2). In absolute terms, the
are the fastest-growing age group in the whole population. LF-entrance group increased over time until 1990 but
These trends are expected to accelerate further as the began to decline thereafter, despite overall population
second childbearing wave ages into these groups after growth. In 2020, the LF-entrance group was 51% larger
2037. Projections indicate that the proportion of people than in 1953. However, in relative terms, the proportion of
aged 65 and older will increase from 13.5% in 2020 to the LF-entrance population within the total working-age
14.3% by 2025 and 21.0% by 2035 (Wolf Jr. et al., 2011). The population followed a similar trend but declined sharply.
changing age structure in China predicts a depopulating Its value in 2020 was only 55% of that in 1953 (17.3% vs.
country owing to decreasing births and increases in the 10.5%), indicating a significant reduction in its weight
old-age population. within the total labor force and predicting further labor
force shrinkage in the coming years.
The retired Chinese population has made significant
contributions to society through their lifelong work, the In contrast, the LF-exit group increased continuously
playing of caregiving and mentorship roles for younger and at a faster pace than the LF-entrance group. Between
generations, and the preservation of cultural knowledge 1953 and 2020, the LF-exit population grew by 4.67 times,
and traditions. However, they are also among the most frail with nearly linear growth after 1990. Moreover, while the
and vulnerable groups with unique needs (Kerr & Beaujot, proportion of the LF-exit group within the total working-
2016). The growing proportions of people aged 75 and age population initially declined, it began to rise steadily
older, and 85 and older mean that China’s older population post-1990. By 2020, its weight had increased by 72%
will continue to become more frail and challenging to compared to 1953 (15.8% in 1953 vs. 27.1% in 2020).
support. Many of them face physical limitations and The ratio of the LF-entrance population to the LF-exit
require health and home care services. For instance, more population, which indicates labor force growth when the
than 35% of those aged 75 and older report having three ratio is greater than 1 and decline when it is less than 1,
or more chronic conditions, compared to 10% in the 65 has also varied significantly over time. In 1953, this ratio
and older group (Kerr & Beaujot, 2016). The rapid growth was 2.01, meaning the LF-entrance population was twice
of these aged groups is likely to place additional pressure the size of the LF-exit population. The ratio peaked at 2.71
on healthcare and home care systems. Moreover, the “one- in 1990 before beginning a steep decline. By 2020, the ratio
child” policy has exacerbated challenges for eldercare, as
an increasing number of seniors no longer live with adult 5.00
children. This has created demand for alternative housing 4.67
options, such as senior residences and nursing care 4.50
facilities (Qian & Li, 2020). Seniors living on their own also
face specific needs related to home care, transportation, 4.00
and security. 3.50 3.51
The changing age structure of China’s population
reflects the interaction between social policies and 3.00
economic development. In the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, the 2.50 2.48 2.71 2.64
2.51
young population was a result of pronatalist policies and 2.32
the demands of a labor-intensive economy. By contrast, 2.00 2.01 2.04 2.02
the aging population after the 1980s resulted from family 1.65 1.86 1.72
planning policies and improved living standards driven by 1.50 1.53 1.32 1.51
China’s economic reforms. Looking forward, the shrinking 1.00 1.10 1.11 1.22
1.00
young population and expanding senior population will 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.89 0.82 1.02 0.80
0.78
shape future demographic and economic trends. The 0.50 0.65
0.55
following sections will explore the implications of these
trends for the labor force and potential public burdens. 0.00
1953 1982 1990 2000 2010 2020
3.2. Labor-force-entrance group vs. labor-force-exit Series1 Series2 Series3 Series4 Series5
group Figure 2. The variation of LF-entrance and LF-exit population by
The population sizes of the labor-force-entrance number and proportion out of workers and the ratio of the LF-entrance
population to the LF-exit population between 1953 and 2020 in China
(LF-entrance) and labor-force-exit (LF-exit) groups Sources: Census data in 1953, 1982, 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 in China.
provide important insights into the general trend of Abbreviation: LF: Labor force.

Volume 11 Issue 3 (2025) 143 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.6859