Page 125 - IJPS-11-5

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
The effects of economic development

and regional disparity on fertility rates in
South Korea, 2000 – 2020

Kyungjae Lee 1 and Seongwoo Lee *
2
1 Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, College of Agriculture and Life
Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
2 Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences and Department of Agricultural Economics and
Rural Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul,
South Korea

Abstract

The declining total fertility rate in South Korea is a pressing issue, prompting
numerous studies aimed at identifying the factors affecting fertility rates. However,
limited empirical research has focused on investigating the relationship between
regional economic disparity and fertility. This study examines the effects of economic
development and regional economic disparity on fertility rates. Employing bivariate
models, spatial panel models, and time series models, data on the total fertility
rate across 16 metropolitan areas over a 20-year period from 2000 were analyzed.
*Corresponding author: The findings indicate that economic development, as observed in the spatial panel
Seongwoo Lee model, has a positive effect on childbirth, although it does not reach statistical
(seonglee@snu.ac.kr)
significance in the nationwide time series model when accounting for the regional
Citation: Lee, K. & Lee, S. disparity. Conversely, the study reveals a negative impact of Gross Regional Domestic
(2025). The effects of economic
development and regional disparity Product disparity among regions on the total fertility rate. Consequently, this research
on fertility rates in South Korea, underscores the importance of balanced national development in improving fertility
2000 – 2020. International Journal rates, highlighting the detrimental consequences of widening regional disparity on
of Population Studies, 11(5): 119-133.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.8157 low fertility. In addition, the study offers policy measures to address the challenge of
local extinction.
Received: December 24, 2024
1st revised: March 3, 2025
Keywords: Total fertility rate; Economic development; Regional economic disparity;
2nd revised: March 18, 2025 Spatial panel model; Time series model
Accepted: March 20, 2025
Published online: May 14, 2025
Copyright: © 2025 Author(s). 1. Introduction
This is an Open-Access article
distributed under the terms of the The low fertility rate in South Korea (hereafter Korea) is at an unprecedentedly low
Creative Commons Attribution level compared to global trends. Due to the significant decline in fertility rates, the
License, permitting distribution,
and reproduction in any medium, Korean government has implemented various policies aimed at increasing fertility rates.
provided the original work is However, as of 2023, the total fertility rate has reached a historical low of 0.72 births per
properly cited. woman (Statistics Korea, 2024), placing Korea among the lowest-ranking Organization
Publisher’s Note: AccScience for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Persistent low fertility
Publishing remains neutral with raises concerns about the country’s long-term sustainability, and criticism regarding the
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional effectiveness of existing birth policies has been voiced (Jung & Kim, 2022; Park, 2022;
affiliations. Seo, 2019).

Volume 11 Issue 5 (2025) 119 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.8157