Page 126 - IJPS-11-5

International Journal of
Population Studies Regional disparities and fertility rates

This decline in fertility rates has been observed alongside 1.1. Literature review
Korea’s rapid economic growth. Since its industrialization 1.1.1. Economic development and fertility rates
in the 1960s, Korea has transformed from a low-income
economy into one of the world’s leading industrialized The relationship between economic development and
nations. Despite sustained economic expansion, fertility fertility rates remains a contentious topic in socioeconomic
rates have continued to decline, highlighting the need to research. Various studies offer differing perspectives on how
examine whether this trend is directly linked to economic economic progress influences fertility decisions, reflecting
growth. The relationship between economic growth the complexity of this issue across multiple disciplines –
and fertility is complex and has been widely debated in demography, economics, political science, sociology, and
demographic and economic research. While economic geography (Duan & Chen, 2022; Lee et al., 2021; Park, 2018;
development generally leads to improved living standards, Rosero-Bixby, 2024). Research efforts typically classify the
its effects on fertility can vary depending on structural study of this relationship into micro-level approaches,
economic changes, social norms, and policy interventions. examining individual or household characteristics and
In the early stages of economic growth, rising incomes and macro-level approaches, exploring how national or regional
better healthcare often contribute to higher fertility rates. economic variables impact fertility rates (Yoon, 2016).
However, as economies advance, fertility rates tend to This study focuses on the macro-level analysis, seeking to
decline due to factors, such as increased female labor force understand how broader economic conditions relate to
participation, rising opportunity costs of child-rearing, aggregated fertility rates, which are indicative of collective
and shifts in household preferences toward investment in individual decisions (Kim et al., 2006; Lee & Choi, 2012).
child quality rather than quantity (Becker, 1960; Galor & Traditional economic theories suggest that higher
Weil, 2000). fertility rates are typically observed during the initial stages
Meanwhile, economic growth has not been uniform of a nation’s economic development. However, as economic
across regions, leading to widening regional economic development progresses, a declining trend in fertility rates
disparities. While prior studies have examined regional is often noted. Numerous international studies have argued
differences in fertility rates, the direct impact of economic that economic development is negatively associated with
disparities between regions on fertility decline remains fertility rates (Campisi et al., 2020; Doepke, 2004; Galor
understudied. Regional economic inequality can influence & Weil, 1996; Lieming et al., 2022; Myrskylä et al., 2009;
fertility decisions through multiple channels, including Wu et al., 2022), with this effect being more pronounced in
income stability, employment opportunities, housing advanced economies than developing countries (Li, 2015).
affordability, and access to public services, such as Furthermore, longitudinal studies indicate a negative
childcare and education. Specifically, regional economic correlation between long-term population growth rates
disparities can drive outmigration to more developed and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates
areas, exacerbating demographic imbalances and further (Barro & Becker 1989).
weakening fertility rates in less developed regions (OECD, A comprehensive analysis of the longitudinal trends in
2022). Despite the growing recognition of these dynamics, Korea’s per capita GDP and total fertility rate following the
empirical research that integrates economic growth, Korean War (1950 – 1953) reveals a significant pattern, in
regional economic disparities, and fertility outcomes which the nation’s economic development is consistently
within a single analytical framework remains limited. accompanied by a progressive decline in the fertility rate.
Socially, as living standards improved and the importance
This study aims to address this gap by examining the
relationship between economic growth, regional economic of human capital increased, expectations regarding the
residential environment and education for child-rearing
disparities, and fertility rates. Using data on total fertility also intensified (Galor & Weil, 2000; Sheppard, 2024). This
rates from 2000 to 2020 across 16 metropolitan regions in increased the overall societal cost of childbirth, influenced
Korea, this study conducts a bivariate analysis, spatial panel by the trend of lower-income households striving to
analysis, and time series analysis to assess how economic match the educational investment levels of higher-income
growth and regional economic disparity affect fertility households, a phenomenon known as the “neighborhood
rates. By providing empirical evidence on the interplay effect” (Ha, 2012). Furthermore, several studies have
1
between economic growth, regional economic disparities,
and fertility outcomes, this study contributes to a deeper 1 According to the “exogenously determined habit
understanding of how structural economic factors shape formation” model in consumption theory, an
demographic trends, offering valuable insights for policies individual’s utility is influenced not only by their own
aimed at regional economic balance and demographic consumption but also by the consumption levels of
sustainability. others (Pollak, 1970).

Volume 11 Issue 5 (2025) 120 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.8157