Page 75 - IJPS-2-2

Ramesh Babu Kafle

The risk of second birth declined significantly by 31% (relative risk 0.69, p < 0.001) for women
who had their first birth after age 25 as compared to those who had their first birth before reaching
age 20. Having a first child daughter is associated with an increased risk of second birth. The risk of
second birth after a first daughter is increased by 19% (relative risk 1.19, p < 0.001) as compared to
having a son as the first child. Women whose first child survived during infancy had significantly
reduced risk of having second child by 48% (relative risk 0.52, p < 0.001) as compared to those
whose first child died during infancy. There is only a small difference in the risk of attaining the
second birth between uneducated women and women with some primary education. But, with refer-
ence to uneducated women, the risk of second birth is reduced by 20% (relative risk 0.8, p < 0.001)
for women with more than primary education. The reduced risk (around 13%) of the second birth is
also found for women working in the non-agricultural sector (relative risk 0.87, p < 0.01) as com-
pared to women who are not working. A significantly lower risk of the second birth is also observed
for women from the richer wealth quintile by 15% (relative risk 0.85, p < 0.001) and the richest
wealth quintile by 25% (relative risk 0.75, p <0 .001, respectively) as compared to those from the
poorest wealth quintile.

3.3 The Third Birth
Factors influencing transition from the second birth to the third birth are similar to those from the
first to the second birth. Place of residence and women’s exposure to media have no net effect on the
risk of attaining the third birth. The risk of the third birth is significantly higher for women whose
second child was a daughter (relative risk 1.48, p < 0.001) compared to those whose second child
was a son. The earlier the timing of the second birth, therefore the higher the risk of the third birth.
Similarly, the higher the mother’s age at the second birth, the lower the risk of transiting to the
third birth. Risk of the third birth is significantly lower for women whose second child survived to
the end of the first year of life (relative risk 0.48, p < 0.001) as compared to those whose pre-
vious child died as infant.
The influence of women’s education, work status, and household wealth quintile are more signif-
icant for the third birth than the second birth. Compared to the risk of the third birth among unedu-
cated women, the risk among women with more than primary education is almost half (relative risk
0.56, p < 0.001). Similarly, the risk of the third birth among women working in the non-agricultural
sector is three-fourths the risk of women who are not working. With reference to women from the
poorest wealth quintile, as one moves to upper quintiles, the risk of attaining the third birth signifi-
cantly and substantially declines as one moves to upper quintiles (for women in the richest wealth
quintile, relative risk is 0.50, p < 0.001).

3.4 The Fourth and Fifth Birth

The transition probabilities to the fourth birth showed similar results to those observed for the
third birth. The only difference is that there is some significant net effect of media exposure on tran-
sition to the fourth birth; the better the women are exposed to mass media, the lower their transition
probability to the fourth birth (relative risk for better exposed women is 0.88, p < 0.01). Better edu-
cation, working in the non-agricultural sector, belonging to upper household wealth quintiles, a re-
cent third birth, and older age are all associated with a reduced risk of the fourth birth.
Risk ratios of fifth birth for different categories of socioeconomic and demographic variables are
similar to those obtained for the risk of fourth birth except for the fact that urban-rural difference is
significant for the fifth birth. Women living in urban areas have lower transition probabilities to the
fifth birth than women in rural areas (relative risk 0.82, p < 0.05).

4. Discussion

Only a slight transition in the age at first birth in Nepal has occurred. The first birth is universal and

International Journal of Population Studies | 2016, Volume 2, Issue 2 69