Page 89 - IJPS-3-1

Lagergen M, Kurube N and Saito Y

The cumulative transition-probability matrices were used to calculate the resulting
distribution of states by successive age given the initial state.

3 Results
In Tables 1 and 2, we show the probability of death and the distribution by degree of
dependency of the surviving men, depending on their initial states at 78 years of age,
after 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 years. The corresponding results for women (not shown here)
follow a similar pattern, though the probability of death given the initial state is lower
and the probability of dependency among the surviving women is higher.

Table 1. Predicted probability of dependency transitions, Japan, men (percentages)
Distribution among survivors
Dead No IADL ADL Total
limitations dependency dependency (survivors)
Initial distribution at 78 years of age 87.1 5.9 7.0 100.0

Initial state After 3 years
No limitations 14.8 80.9 13.6 5.4 100.0
IADL dependency 29.5 27.1 34.0 39.0 100.0
ADL dependency 54.6 7.8 13.0 79.2 100.0
Total 18.4 75.3 14.6 10.0 100.0

Initial state After 6 years
No limitations 28.2 60.8 27.4 11.8 100.0
IADL dependency 51.6 32.4 31.8 35.8 100.0
ADL dependency 75.2 15.2 24.0 60.8 100.0
Total 32.8 58.5 27.5 14.1 100.0

Initial state After 9 years
No limitations 47.9 43.0 31.1 25.8 100.0
IADL dependency 70.6 29.8 29.5 40.7 100.0
ADL dependency 87.5 18.7 24.9 56.4 100.0
Total 52.0 42.1 31.0 26.9 100.0

Initial state After 12 years
No limitations 68.1 28.9 41.0 30.1 100.0
IADL dependency 84.0 23.5 38.7 37.8 100.0
ADL dependency 94.1 17.9 35.0 47.1 100.0
Total 70.9 28.6 40.9 30.6 100.0

Initial state After 15 years
No limitations 83.7 23.9 36.7 39.4 100.0
IADL dependency 92.4 21.4 35.5 43.1 100.0
ADL dependency 97.4 18.5 33.6 47.9 100.0
Total 85.2 23.7 36.7 39.6 100.0

International Journal of Population Studies 2017, Volume 3, Issue 1 83