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Lagergen M, Kurube N and Saito Y
Table 3. Predicted probability of LTC level transitions, Japan, women (percentages)
Distribution among survivors
Dead
No LTC Home-related LTC Institution Total (survivors)
at 78 years of age 90.5 8.2 1.3 100.0
Initial state After 3 years
No LTC 8.6 79.9 15.4 4.7 100.0
Home-related LTC 24.7 25.2 59.0 15.8 100.0
Institution 36.4 17.7 24.8 57.5 100.0
Total 10.3 75.6 18.5 5.9 100.0
Initial state After 6 years
No LTC 19.0 62.3 31.2 6.6 100.0
Home-related LTC 44.8 30.4 54.1 15.5 100.0
Institution 59.4 23.8 43.5 32.8 100.0
Total 21.6 60.2 32.6 7.2 100.0
Initial state After 9 years
No LTC 37.3 45.5 40.9 13.7 100.0
Home-related LTC 64.8 28.3 50.7 21.0 100.0
Institution 76.7 23.3 47.9 28.8 100.0
Total 40.1 44.5 41.4 14.1 100.0
Initial state After 12 years
No LTC 59.4 38.1 39.6 22.3 100.0
Home-related LTC 80.3 28.2 43.1 28.7 100.0
Institution 87.9 24.6 42.5 32.9 100.0
Total 61.5 37.6 39.7 22.6 100.0
Initial state After 15 years
No LTC 78.1 30.7 39.9 29.4 100.0
Home-related LTC 90.5 25.3 40.9 33.8 100.0
Institution 94.4 23.0 40.8 36.3 100.0
Total 79.3 30.4 39.9 29.6 100.0
As with functional dependency, the initial LTC level state at age 78 makes a
great difference when it comes to the probability of death and the future LTC level.
However, it seems that institutional care is much less definitive in the Japanese
case than the Swedish. In the latter case, almost no one makes the transition from
institutional care to a lower level of care, whereas this is fairly common in the Japanese
case (see Section 4: Discussion).
In Tables 5 and 6, we show the probability of death and the distribution of LTC
levels for survivors after 3, 6, 9, 12, and 15 years for persons who initially had no LTC
services.
The probability of death increases over time, of course, and is greater among
men than women. A higher proportion of female than male survivors also end up in
institutional care. However, this is more common in Sweden than in Japan.
International Journal of Population Studies 2017, Volume 3, Issue 1 85
