Page 51 - IJPS-9-3

International Journal of

Population Studies

RESEARCH ARTICLE
An intentional random mathematical model for

immigration: A case study of Spain

Rafael Company *, Lucas Jódar , and Sheila Torres 2
1
1
1 Multidisciplinary Mathematics University Research Institute, Polytechnic University of Valencia,
Camino de Vera, s/n, 46022, Valencia, Spain
2 Academic Organization and Planning Vicerectorate, International University of Valencia, C/Pintor
Sorolla 21, 46002 Valencia, Spain

Abstract
This paper presents a random discrete mathematical population model for
immigration. This model incorporates not only rational factors, such as the economic
gradient between destination and origin countries, geographical factors, and
regulatory laws but also hidden intentional factors, such as the political interests of
governments and the involvement of migrant smuggling by criminal organizations,
which exploit immigration as a strategic tool. These non-rational factors are modeled
as sudden, random arrival flow waves, represented by a Poisson distribution. The
study’s time frame is short to ensure the reliability of economic forecasts for the
coming years. Although the study focuses on Spain, the proposed approach is
applicable to other geographic areas with appropriate data. The results obtained
from this model can be applied to predict the national budget necessary for host
*Corresponding author: countries to address this complex social phenomenon.
Rafael Company
(rcompany@imm.upv.es)
Citation: Company, R., Jódar, L. Keywords: Immigration mathematical modeling; Random discrete dynamics; Population
& Torres, S. (2023). An intentional dynamics; Intentional randomness; Unaccompanied minor
random mathematical model for
immigration: A case study of Spain.
International Journal of Population
Studies, 9(3): 45-55.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.478 1. Introduction
Received: March 13, 2023 The movement of human populations is a phenomenon as old as mankind itself, and
Accepted: September 11, 2023 it can be observed among irrational animals in search of better living conditions.
Nomadic ways of living can be either voluntary or forced, as seen in cases resulting
Published Online: October 27,
2023 from warfare consequences. There are two primary types of human migration:
economic migration, aimed at improving living conditions, and migration motivated
Copyright: © 2023 Author(s).
This is an Open-Access article by the fear of death due to conflicts among neighboring regions. Human migration is
distributed under the terms of the now being leveraged as a viable weapon by many state and non-state actors pursuing
Creative Commons Attribution unconventional means to increase regional influence and achieve their political or
License, permitting distribution,
and reproduction in any medium, economic objectives. While some old migration phenomena can be considered as
provided the original work is precursors to the weaponization of migration, this new strategy is gaining increasing
properly cited. relevance due to the use of migration as an instrument to obtain political benefits
Publisher’s Note: AccScience or economic pawns from the affected countries (Greenhill, 2010; Greenhill, 2016;
Publishing remains neutral with Ho & Wijnkoop, 2022; Steger, 2017). The pursuit of these pawns is not limited to
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional issuing countries; it is also possible in host countries through open-door strategies
affiliations. (Cymbranowicz, 2018; Koca, 2015).

Volume 9 Issue 3 (2023) 45 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.478