Page 52 - IJPS-9-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Intentional random mathematical model of immigration

Given that the weaponization of immigration flows Population migration has traditionally been analyzed
is initiated externally to the decision to immigrate by through gravity models, which consider physical factors
the population itself, and such strategies may be driven while excluding psychological or intentional influences.
by sudden and circumstantial possibilities arising from These models operate on the assumption that the
random events such as wars or conflicts, it is worthwhile probability of population movement between two locations
to introduce a random component into the immigration decays in direct proportion to the distance between them
modeling process. Consequently, immigration population and the sizes of the populations involved (Clark & Ballard,
phenomena exhibit a deterministic and predictable 1980; Greenwood, 1985; Lee, 1966; Letouzé et al., 2009;
component, at least within a short timeframe, which is Schneider, 1959; Stouffer, 1940 Zipf, 1946).
influenced by the host country’s economic conditions Since 2012, radiation models have assumed that
and the regulations governing regular immigration, the probability of a trip decays with the distance of
as illustrated in Figure 1. Recent data demonstrate intervening opportunities (Masucci et al., 2013; Noulas
the occurrence of significant immigration surges et al., 2012; Yang et al., 2014). Both gravity and radiation
coinciding with disputes among neighboring countries models disregard intentionality, emotions, interest, and
(Ho & Wijnkoop, 2022; Steger, 2017). other human factors (Beyer et al., 2022). More recently,
Weaponized immigration populations can manifest machine learning models have emerged that are capable
as a mass population fleeing from the ravages of war, as of incorporating any number of exogenous features to
seen in the case of Syrian refugees, whom Turkey has predict human migration flows from origin to destination
leveraged as an instrument to gain social, political, and (Robinson & Dilkina, 2018).
economic advantages from the European Union. Beyond This paper is organized as follows: Section 2 focuses
the public political interests of governments, there also on model construction, which includes historical trends,
exists a private business of migrant smuggling conducted Poisson modeling of immigration influx, and the statement
by criminal organizations, who profit by facilitating the of the vector mathematical model. Section 3 covers
movement of immigrants from distant regions to locations results, robustness, and applications to social budgeting.
near the borders of the issuing countries (United Nations Conclusions are drawn in Section 4.
Office on Drugs and Crime, 2017).
2. Methods
The occurrence of several immigration waves at specific
times suggests the use of Poisson distribution to model 2.1. Model construction
the random component. Antecedents of deterministic War conflicts and sudden transitions to dictatorship in
mathematical immigration models can be found in Torres neighboring countries are natural sources of immigration
et al. (2022) and the references cited therein. flows, in addition to the traditional regular immigration

Figure 1. Main factors of the immigration process.

Volume 9 Issue 3 (2023) 46 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.478