Page 58 - IJPS-9-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Intentional random mathematical model of immigration

Figure 4. Unaccompanied minors under 14 years old, CH(n). Figure 7. Regular immigrants, L().

Table 9. Budgeting for unaccompanied minors when = 0
Year n M(n) Budget (€, in millions)
2020 1 19,346 529.605
2021 2 26,673 730.178
2022 3 34,058 932.349
2023 4 41,491 1,135.804
2024 5 48,961 1,340.298
2025 6 56,462 1,545.643
2026 7 63,988 1,751.666
2027 8 71,534 1,958.236
Figure 5. Unaccompanied minors aged 14 – 18, M(n).

Table 10. Budgeting for unaccompanied minors when = 1
Year n M(n) Budget (€, in millions)
2020 1 19,346 529.605
2021 2 28,246 730.235
2022 3 36,846 1,008.655
2023 4 45,217 1,237.812
2024 5 53,414 1,462.195
2025 6 61,478 1,682.947
2026 7 69,440 1,900.917
2027 8 77,325 2,116.761
Figure 6. Irregular adult immigrants, I(n).
Table 11. Budgeting for unaccompanied minors when = 2
approximate the cost of the assistance (accommodation,
nutrition, medical services) based on an average Spanish Year n M(n) Budget (€, in millions)
region, like Aragón. In accordance with the data from the 2020 1 19,346 529.605
Social Affairs Institute of Aragón, the daily cost per capita 2021 2 29,005 793.999
for individuals in the category M() is approximately 2022 3 38,190 1,045.454
75 euros. Using the population data for M() for each 2023 4 47,014 1,287.006
year, we can estimate the social budget required for their 2024 5 55,561 1,520.981
assistance in the incoming years. Tables 5-7 provide data 2025 6 63,896 1,749.164
for three different scenarios, and the respective yearly
budgets are presented in Tables 9-11, corresponding to the 2026 7 72,069 1,972.895
values of the expected rate . 2027 8 80,117 2,193.211

Volume 9 Issue 3 (2023) 52 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.478