Page 59 - IJPS-9-3

International Journal of
Population Studies Intentional random mathematical model of immigration

4. Conclusion Ethics approval and consent to participate

In this paper, we present an intentional random discrete Not applicable.
dynamic mathematical model that integrates human and
hidden intentional variables, influencing the migration Consent for publication
phenomenon. This approach is distinctly different from Not applicable.
other physical models, such as gravity or radiation models,
which disregard the hidden human intentions driven Availability of data
by governments or criminal organizations. Modeling Some data used in the paper can be downloaded from
these uncertain behaviors requires historical data, and it the Spanish National Statistical Institute (INE), web site:
is accomplished by employing a Poisson distribution to https://www.ine.es/and Statista, web site: https://es.statista.
capture the random flow waves of immigrants at the times com/.
when such decisions are made.
In our opinion, the strength of the model lies in Further disclosure
its ability to address non-rational factors and the The paper is deposited in Authorea, DOI: 10.22541/
challenges associated with quantifying them. However, au.167687103.38394052/v1
the weakness of the model is that it involves non-rational
factors that are often obscured in real data due to hidden References
motivations and a lack of transparency. This limitation Beyer, R.M., Schewe, J., & Lotze-Campen, H. (2022). Gravity
is inherent in studies of all social human problems models do not explain, and cannot predict, international
that involve hidden intentions, delinquency, or crimes migration dynamics. Humanities and Social Sciences
(drug trafficking, suicide, and crime). Consequently, the Communications, 9(1):56.
results represent approximations rather than verifiable https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-022-01067-x
results.
Clark, G.L., & Ballard, K.P. (1980). Modeling out-migration from
The immigrant population is computed to estimate depressed regions: The significance of origin and destination
the necessary social budget for the host country, mainly characteristics. Environment and Planning A, 12(7):799-812.
focusing on unaccompanied minors and adolescents. As
we estimated in Section 3, the social assistance budget https://doi.org/10.1068/a120799
for the population, (), in the past year of the study Cymbranowicz, K. (2018). “Fortress Europe” or “Open Door
period (2027) amounted to approximately two billion Policy”-attempts to solve the refugee and migration crisis
euros. This constitutes approximately 60% of the present in the European union in 2011-2017. International Business
national social affairs budget allocated to supporting and Global Economy, 37(1):53-70.
all Spanish citizens in situations of dependence. While https://doi.org/10.4467/23539496IB.18.004.9377
our case study is in Spain, the model can be applied to David, F.N., & Johnson, N.L. (1952). The truncated poisson.
other regions with access to recent historical immigration Biometrics, 8(4):275-285.
flow data.
https://doi.org/10.2307/3001863
Acknowledgments Faus, J., & Landauro, I. (2021). Spain Vows to Restore Order
None. After Thousands Swim into Ceuta from Morocco. Reuters.
Available from: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/
Funding spain-deploys-army-ceuta-patrol-border-with-morocco-
after-migrants-break-2021-05-18 [Last accessed on
None. 2023 Mar 03].
Conflict of interest Greenhill, K.M. (2010). Weapons of Mass Migration: Forced
Displacement, Coercion, and Foreign Policy. New York:
The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Cornell University Press.
Author contributions Greenhill, K.M. (2016). Migration as a weapon in theory and in
practice. Military Review, 96(6):23-36.
Conceptualization: All authors Greenhill, K.M. (2021). Morocco “Weaponized” Migration
Investigation: All authors to Punish Spain. That’s More Common than you Think.
Writing – original draft: All authors The Washington Post. Available from: https://www.
Writing – review and editing: All authors washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/06/01/morocco-

Volume 9 Issue 3 (2023) 53 https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.478