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Takele, et al.

of how human-driven landscape transformations are could be applicable to other regions facing similar
impacting the region’s water resources. The SWAT environmental pressures, thereby supporting the
model, calibrated and validated using the SUFI-2 resilience of both human and ecological systems
method, showed strong performance, with R values globally. Future research is encouraged to integrate
2
of 0.84 and 0.79, NSE values of 0.75 and 0.72, and the MODFLOW groundwater model with the SWAT
PBIAS values of −0.1 and −11 for calibration and hydrological model. Such integration could enhance
validation, respectively. Over the past two decades, the accuracy of groundwater recharge estimates by
forests and shrublands in the watershed have steadily more effectively capturing surface water-groundwater
declined, replaced by expanding agricultural lands and interactions, thereby improving model reliability and
urban areas. These shifts have altered the watershed’s informing more effective water resource management
hydrological behavior, reducing its capacity to absorb strategies.
and store water. SWAT model results indicate a 24.5%
decrease in groundwater recharge and a 19.9% increase Acknowledgments
in surface runoff during the study period. SWAT-
CUP simulations further confirmed a 20% reduction The authors would like to acknowledge the National
in recharge, primarily linked to deforestation, urban Meteorological Institute and the Ministry of Water and
growth, and agricultural expansion. Energy of Ethiopia for providing meteorological and
Land-use analysis showed a 79.2% increase in hydrological data, respectively.
built-up areas and a 52.6% rise in agricultural land,
while scrubland and forest areas decreased by 23.7% Funding
and 62.8%, respectively. These changes demonstrate the
direct and measurable impact of LULC transformation None.
on the watershed’s hydrological system. The findings
serve as a clear call to action: Without integrated and Conflict of interest
sustainable land management strategies, the Dire
Dawa watershed will continue to face declining water The authors declare no conflicts of interest related to
availability and increased runoff risks. Protecting natural this work or with any institution or organization.
land cover, guiding urban expansion, and promoting
sustainable agricultural practices are essential steps to Author contributions
preserving this vital ecosystem and its water resources
for future generations. Conceptualization: Tariku Takele,Adula Bayisa

To restore balance in the region’s water cycle, Data curation: Tariku Takele,Adula Bayisa

this study recommends adopting sustainable land Methodology: Tariku Takele,Adula Bayisa

management practices. The findings offer important Supervision: Tariku Takele,Muralitharan Jothimani

policy implications for protecting groundwater Validation: All authors
resources and ultimately achieving water security in Visualization: All authors
a future characterized by expanding anthropogenic Writing–original draft: Tariku Takele,Adula Bayisa

stress. Key recommendations include reforestation, Writing–review & editing: All authors
improved agricultural methods, and efficient urban
planning strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of Availability of data
rapid urbanization and land degradation. The effective
management of groundwater recharge, through both The data used in this study are available from the
conservation and sustainable development practices, corresponding author on reasonable request.
will be a key to meeting future water needs and
supporting regional resilience to climate change and References
population growth. This study contributes to the
development of effective hydrological management 1. Krueger E, Rao PSC, Borchardt D. Quantifying urban
strategies that address the immediate challenges of water supply security under global change. Glob Environ
groundwater depletion in the study area and lay the Change. 2019;56:66-74.
foundation for sustainable watershed management doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.00
in Ethiopia. Moreover, the findings offer insights that 2. Adger WN, Crépin AS, Folke C, et al. Urbanization,

Volume 22 Issue 6 (2025) 116 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025180139