Page 227 - AJWEP-22-6

Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution. Vol. 22, No. 6 (2025), pp. 221-242.
doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025350269

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Spatiotemporal dynamics of fractional vegetation cover
and its relationship with climatic factors in the Yarkand

River Basin

Guoqiang Qin * , Kai Yuan 1,2 , Guoliang Ding , Qiang Guo 1,2 ,
3
1,2
and Runbo Wang 1,2
1 Department of Hydraulic Engineering Management, College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering, Xinjiang Agricultural
University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
2 Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Engineering Safety and Disaster Mitigation, College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,
Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, Xinjiang, China
3 Department of Environmental Protection Engineering, XPCC Surveying and Designing Institute Group Co., Ltd., Urumqi,
Xinjiang, China
*Corresponding author: Guoqiang Qin (qinguoqiang1988@163.com)

Received: August 25, 2025; 1st revised: September 16, 2025; 2nd revised: September 23, 2025;
Accepted: September 28, 2025; Published online: October 24, 2025

Abstract: The Yarkand River Basin, an ecologically fragile zone in arid northwest China, is critical for regional
ecological management due to its sensitivity to environmental changes. This study examines the spatiotemporal
dynamics of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) from 2000 to 2023 and its correlation with climatic factors,
using the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index
data and climate observations (temperature and precipitation). FVC was estimated using the pixel dichotomy
method, with Sen+Mann–Kendall trend analyses, and Pearson correlation was applied to assess temporal
trends and climate-vegetation relationships. MODIS land use data were reclassified to evaluate FVC variations
across forestland, grassland, farmland, bare land, and other ecological types. Results revealed significant
spatiotemporal heterogeneity in FVC. Spatially, Yecheng County exhibited higher FVC than Bachu County,
driven by favorable topography. Temporally, FVC showed a significant upward trend post-2000, particularly in
grasslands and croplands, stabilizing between 2010 and 2023. Climate analysis indicated divergent responses:
farmland and forest FVC were negatively correlated with temperature (ranging from 8°C to over 9°C). In
contrast, grassland and forest FVC were positively associated with precipitation (increasing by ~14 mm).
A 1–2-month lag effect was observed in precipitation’s impact on FVC. The Hurst index suggested a sustained
FVC growth in most regions. These findings highlight the role of climate change in driving FVC dynamics,
providing a scientific basis for ecological conservation and sustainable water resource management in arid
regions.

Keywords: Yarkand River Basin; Fractional vegetation cover; Land use types; Climatic factors; Ecological
management

Volume 22 Issue 6 (2025) 221 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025350269