Page 103 - AJWEP-v22i2

Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution. Vol. 22, No. 2 (2025), pp. 97-113.
doi: 10.36922/ajwep.8381

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Integrated modeling of socioeconomic and hydrological
factors for adaptive drought response in the Kowsar Dam

basin, Iran

Ali Ghasemi , Seyed Nematollah Mosavi* , and Bahaeddin Najafi
Department of Agricultural Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Iran
*Corresponding author: Seyed Nematollah Mosavi (seyed_1978mo@yahoo.com)

Received: January 3, 2025; 1st revised: February 26, 2025; 2nd revised: March 7, 2025;
3rd revised: March 15, 2025; Accepted: March 17, 2025; Published online: April 4, 2025

Abstract: The agricultural sector faces major challenges from increasing droughts and declining water resources,
especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The present study aims to simulate the effects of drought on socioeconomic,
hydrological, and adaptive behavioral parameters at the basin level to identify drought-vulnerable areas and
improve agricultural sector management under drought conditions. This study integrates water evaluation and
planning, positive mathematical programming, and theory of planned behavior models to analyze hydrological,
socioeconomic, and behavioral systems, respectively, under drought scenarios. To implement this integrated model,
the Kowsar Dam basin in Iran was selected as the study area. The results showed that droughts significantly reduce
crop yields, increase unmet water demand, alter cultivation patterns, and lower farmers’ profits, all driven by reduced
rainfall, higher temperatures, and shrinking water resources. Attitudes, norms, and perceived control explained
74.1% of behavioral intention and 58.6% of farmers’ drought responses. Therefore, influencing psychological
parameters can help foster the acceptance of drought adaptation strategies at the basin level. In conclusion, this
integrated framework serves as a valuable tool for identifying drought-vulnerable areas and designing effective
policies and interventions for drought management.

Keywords: Drought modeling; Drought-vulnerable regions; Integrated modeling; Climate resilience; Behavioral
adaptation

1. Introduction in agriculture. 8-12 Farmers are directly affected by
drought-induced declines in agricultural productivity,
Climate change is increasing the frequency of droughts, making them a key focus of drought impact studies.
13
posing significant challenges to agriculture and the Agriculture accounts for 70% of global water usage and
environment. Drought, a complex natural event, 50% of habitable land, with rising food demand further
1-3
impacts large geographical areas and populations, straining water supplies, especially in arid regions. 14
reducing water resources in arid and semi-arid regions Drought poses a growing threat to global agriculture,
and exacerbating issues like land-use changes. Water particularly in arid regions like Iran, where water
4-7
scarcity is a critical global issue, with declining surface scarcity has reached critical levels. 15-17 From 1960 to
and groundwater resources intensifying environmental 2005, Iran’s temperatures rose by 2.5 – 5°C, and its
pressures and conflicts among users, particularly annual rainfall of 400 billion m lost 270 billion m to
3
3

Volume 22 Issue 2 (2025) 97 doi: 10.36922/ajwep.8381