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Ghasemi, et al.

evaporation, reducing agricultural output and increasing farmers’ intentions and behaviors toward adopting
food demand gaps. 18-22 Investigating the impacts of adaptive strategies to cope with drought.
drought is essential for managing risks and mitigating The novelty of this research lies in the integration
water depletion in agriculture, particularly in water- of the water evaluation and planning (WEAP), positive
scarce regions. mathematical programming (PMP), and theory of
Hydrological assessments at the basin level typically planned behavior (TPB) models to comprehensively
use criteria like water availability, demand reliability, analyze drought impacts on hydrological, socioeconomic,
and unmet demand. 12,21,23,24 For instance, Nazari and behavioral parameters at the basin level. The WEAP
21
predicted reduced water resources in Iranian rivers model is used for hydrological modeling to assess
under the A1 climate scenario (2015 – 2030), while crop yields, water requirements, water availability, and
Mirzaei and Zibaei studied the impact of climate unmet demand, while the PMP model enables socio-
12
change on water availability and crop requirements in economic optimization to evaluate changes in farmers’
the Halil River basin. Studies also evaluate the effects of gross margins and cultivation patterns. The TPB model
drought on water requirements and crop yields. 25-29 For is applied for behavioral analysis to understand farmers’
instance, Ashofteh et al. found that alfalfa, potato, and intentions and adaptive behaviors under drought
25
corn crops would require more water, while wheat and conditions. This integrated approach advances existing
barley would require less in Azerbaijan (2026 – 2032). research by providing a holistic framework that combines
Valizadeh et al. projected over 10% decline in wheat hydrological, economic, and psychological perspectives,
29
yield in Sistan Baluchistan under the A2 scenario. offering deeper insights into drought vulnerability and
While biophysical and hydrological modeling adaptation strategies. The study investigates the effects
dominate drought impact assessments, 30-33 of decreasing precipitation, increasing temperatures, and
socioeconomic impacts are often overlooked. 34,35 changes in water resources on these parameters. Following
Integrated modeling frameworks that combine the overview of the study area and methodology, the
technical-agronomic, hydrological, and socioeconomic results of the drought impacts are presented, followed by
dimensions can simulate climate scenarios and policy conclusions and practical recommendations.
impacts, optimizing socioeconomic benefits. 12,35-37
However, these models often fail to account for human 2. Materials and methods
behavioral responses to climate impacts.
Adaptation strategies are crucial for sustaining rural 2.1. Study area
households during droughts, yet prior studies have To achieve the objectives outlined above, the sub-
38
underemphasized their importance. For example, basin of Kowsar Dam in Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-
39
Chathuranika et al. discussed adaptive strategies Ahmad province in Iran, including the areas of Bashet,
40
for water scarcity in Uzbekistan, highlighting the Gachsaran, and Choram (covering 4,710, 3,018,
agricultural technology of mulching as a suitable and 3,376 hectares, respectively), was chosen as the
adaptation. Asif Khan et al. proposed forest study area (Figure 1). An analysis of climatic data
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conservation policies as a specialized adaptive strategy on temperature and precipitation across the studied
to address climate change challenges. Barua et al. watershed indicates the following:
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demonstrated that the adoption of adaptation practices (i) The long-term trend shows a decrease in precipitation,
to reduce field salinity could effectively address while the average temperature is increasing.
climate change issues. However, farmers’ lack of (ii) Projections for the next 10 years suggest a 21%
effective adaptation knowledge underscores the need decrease in precipitation and a 1°C increase in
for clearer strategies. Recent research identifies temperature.
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factors influencing adaptation strategy use 44,45 and (iii) The average annual runoff has declined to
3
assesses the adaptive capacity of rural households. 46,47 100 million m in the last 5 years.
Adaptive capacity refers to the ability of a system to As a result, the region has experienced successive
adjust to climate variability and extremes, mitigate droughts in recent years, a decline in the amount of
potential damages, seize opportunities, or cope with rainfall, inefficient water usage patterns, and high per
consequences. Psychological and contextual factors capita water consumption, all of which have exacerbated
shape adaptive behaviors, influencing individuals’ water stress and contributed to the water shortage in this
actions. 48,49 The present study focuses on analyzing region. 50,51

Volume 22 Issue 2 (2025) 98 doi: 10.36922/ajwep.8381