Page 140 - AJWEP-v22i3

Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution. Vol. 22, No. 3 (2025), pp. 134-152.
doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from
2020 to 2080

Moussa Sow and Demba Gaye *
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1 Department of Environment, Biodiversity and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Social and Environmental Sciences,
Sine Saloum El-Hadj Ibrahima Niass University, Kaolack, Senegal
2 Laboratory of Geomatics and Environment, Department of Geography, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Assane Seck
University, Ziguinchor, Senegal
*Corresponding author: Demba Gaye (demba.gaye@univ-zig.sn)

Received: April 08, 2025; 1st revised: May 03, 2025; 2nd revised: May 12, 2025; Accepted: May 14, 2025;
Published Online: June 10, 2025

Abstract: Faced with the challenges that climate change poses to all human societies, adaptation is becoming a
necessity for human survival. In this context, it is necessary to study the climatic phenomena that humans face
and that are likely to impact various aspects of life. Therefore, this study sought to analyze the trend of heat
waves in Senegal using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Canadian Earth
System Model Version 5. Three climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and
SSP5-8.5) were used, and the study focused on two future climate normals (2020 – 2050, 2050 – 2080). The study
first spatialized the 95 percentile of minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, then analyzed temperature
th
anomalies with the Lamb index before studying the future trend using the Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained
reflect an upward trend for all the variables in this study for the two periods combined but with a different level
of significance. This increase is greater for minimum temperatures, with rises of 0.43°C for SS1-2.6, 1.06°C for
SSP2-4.5, and 2.18°C for SSP5-8.5. In comparison, maximum temperatures rose by 0.50°C, 1.05°C, and 2.03°C,
respectively, between the first and second periods. Mean temperatures followed the same dynamic, with 0.48°C
for SSP1-2.6, 1.04°C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.16°C for SSP5-8.5. Given these findings, it is important to analyze the
behavior of the other CMIP6 models in assessing heat waves in Senegal.

Keywords: Future trends; Heat waves; Mann–Kendall test; Canadian Earth System Model Version 5; Coupled
Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6; Senegal

1. Introduction In this context, studies have shown that the global
average temperatures are expected to increase by 5.5°C
Climate change is considered one of the greatest by the end of the 21 century, which might result in
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risks of the 21 century, with the potential to affect a global intensification, recurrence, and sustainability
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the health and lives of billions of people worldwide. of heat waves. The increased exposure to heat waves
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This phenomenon is defined as the consequence of is expected to deteriorate population health, increasing
the intensification of anthropogenic greenhouse gas heat-related mortality and morbidity globally. 8
emissions. It is also a factor influencing public health, In addition, climate forecasts for the 21 century
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with diverse and potentially catastrophic consequences. suggest a greater increase in temperatures in Africa
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Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 134 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107