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Groundwater trends in Karakalpakstan

Table 5. Outcomes of Spearman’s rank correlation trend analysis for Turtkul province
Month r s Trend t-static t-distribution Significance
January −0.33 Decreasing −1.98 2.04 Not significant
February −0.305 Decreasing −1.81 2.04 Not significant
March −0.253 Decreasing −1.48 2.04 Not significant
April 0.013 Increasing 0.08 2.04 Not significant
May −0.04 Decreasing −0.23 2.04 Not significant
June 0.086 Increasing 0.49 2.04 Not significant
July 0.313 Increasing 1.87 2.04 Not significant
August 0.385 Increasing 2.36 2.04 Significant
September 0.117 Increasing 0.67 2.04 Not significant
October −0.132 Decreasing −0.75 2.04 Not significant
November −0.163 Decreasing −0.94 2.04 Not significant
December −0.22 Decreasing −1.28 2.04 Not significant
Note: r s: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient.

of August, which shows a significant increasing trend. increases during summer and autumn, likely reflecting
This suggests a seasonal increase in groundwater levels, a dependency on seasonal hydrological inputs. Kegeyli
potentially driven by recharge from precipitation or Province exhibits increasing trends from February
irrigation activities. to December, emphasizing a prolonged period of
In Ellikkala Province (Table S3), no significant groundwater accumulation, potentially due to improved
trends are observed in the early months. However, a water conservation strategies. In Buzatau Province,
clear increasing trend emerges from April to August, strong increasing trends are observed throughout
indicating a shift in groundwater availability during the the year, particularly in the summer months, which
warmer months. Beruniy Province exhibits statistically may result from surface water recharge or changes
significant positive trends from March through in groundwater management practices. Chimbay
September, suggesting a steady increase in groundwater Province also exhibits a steady rise in groundwater
levels, which may be attributed to enhanced recharge levels, aligning with trends observed in adjacent
or reduced extraction. Similarly, Amudarya Province regions. Both Karauzyak and Takhtakopir Provinces
demonstrates significant upward trends from April exhibit consistent and statistically significant increasing
to November, emphasizing the influence of seasonal trends across most months, further highlighting the
variations on groundwater storage. In Khojeli Province, overall positive trajectory of groundwater levels. At
notable increasing trends are recorded from April to the national level, the Republic of Karakalpakstan
September, reinforcing the role of seasonal recharge. demonstrates a dominant pattern of increasing
Conversely, Takhiatash Province presents a mixed groundwater levels throughout the year, with the most
pattern, with some months – such as March and April significant trends observed in the summer months. This
– showing decreasing trends. These declines may widespread upward trend likely reflects a combination
reflect excessive extraction or climatic influences that of improved water management practices, favorable
limit recharge. Shumanay Province shows statistically climatic conditions promoting groundwater storage,
significant increasing trends in nearly all months except and possibly decreased abstraction rates.
November, indicating a consistent year-round rise in In summary, the SR trend analysis confirms a general
groundwater levels. In Kanlikul Province, significant increase in groundwater levels across the region, although
increasing trends are observed in the summer months, localized and seasonal variations exist. These findings
while the early spring months show no clear trend, highlight the importance of monitoring groundwater
possibly suggesting a delayed or gradual recharge resources continuously to ensure sustainable water
onset. Kungirot Province demonstrates steady increases management and mitigate potential risks associated
in groundwater levels, particularly between March with groundwater depletion in certain provinces where
and October, whereas Nukus Province reveals notable decreasing trends were noted.

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 129 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080052