Page 131 - AJWEP-v22i3

Groundwater trends in Karakalpakstan

requiring pre-whitening or other adjustments, given the indicating a general rise in groundwater levels
absence of serial correlation that might otherwise bias throughout the year. Kanlikul Province also exhibits a
the results. significant annual increase (Z=2.595, p=0.009), with
monthly increases from April to November, peaking
3.2. Trend analysis results in May (Z=3.651, p<0.001), again indicating seasonal
recharge. In Kungirot Province, a significant annual
3.2.1. MK test increase (Z=2.846, p=0.004) is observed, supported
The MK test results presented in Table 3 and Table S1 by increasing trends from April to October, with the
provide a comprehensive analysis of monthly and annual strongest trend in May (Z=3.499, p<0.001), further
groundwater level trends across various provinces and underscoring seasonal patterns. Muynak Province
the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. These exhibits one of the strongest trends, with a highly
results reveal significant spatial and temporal variations, significant annual increase (Z=3.884, p<0.001) and
highlighting both consistent patterns and local anomalies. consistent monthly rises throughout the year. In Nukus
In Turtkul Province (Table 3), the MK test reveals Province, the annual trend is not significant; however,
predominantly stable groundwater levels with no May shows a significant increase (Z=2.047, p=0.041),
significant annual trend. However, statistically whereas other months do not. Kegeyli Province shows
significant decreasing trends are observed in January a significant annual increase (Z=2.668, p=0.008), with
(Z=−2.270, p=0.023) and February (Z=−1.973, monthly trends indicating widespread increases from
p=0.048), reflecting a reduction in groundwater levels May to September, consistent with seasonal recharge.
during the winter months. Conversely, a significant In Buzatau Province, both annual (Z=2.879, p=0.004)
increasing trend in August (Z=2.261, p=0.024) suggests and monthly trends are positive, with May showing
a localized summer increase in groundwater levels. In the strongest increases (Z=3.106, p=0.002). Chimbay
Ellikkala Province, the annual trend is not statistically Province exhibits significant positive trends annually
significant. However, the monthly analysis indicates (Z=3.172, p=0.002) and monthly, especially in April
strong increasing trends from April (Z=4.065, p<0.001) (Z=3.619, p<0.001), indicating year-round groundwater
through September, with the most pronounced change level rises. Karauzyak Province also demonstrates
occurring in April. This seasonal pattern suggests a significant positive annual (Z=3.172, p=0.002) and
consistent rise in groundwater levels during the warmer monthly trends, with particularly strong increases
months, likely influenced by regional hydrological or from March to October, peaking in May (Z=3.324,
climatic conditions. p<0.001). In Takhtakopir Province, a significant
The results for Beruniy Province (Table S1) annual trend (Z=2.254, p=0.024) is observed, with
highlight a significant annual increase (Z=2.906, significant monthly increases in May and September,
p=0.004), with monthly increases from April to suggesting localized seasonal variations. Finally, for
November, with the strongest monthly trend in May the Republic of Karakalpakstan, which aggregates data
(Z=4.033, p<0.001), indicating favorable seasonal from all provinces, a significant positive annual trend
recharge. Similarly, Amudarya Province (Table S1) (Z=3.603, p<0.001) is evident. Monthly trends highlight
displays a significant positive annual trend (Z=2.906, widespread increases, with the strongest trends from
p=0.004), with monthly increases from April to April to August aligning with the seasonal patterns
November, mirroring the seasonal pattern observed in observed at the provincial level. Generally, the MK test
Beruniy and suggesting similar hydrological influences. results across the province-level seasonal patterns.
In Khojeli Province, no significant annual trend is In summary, the MK test results indicate varied
observed. However, significant monthly increases are groundwater trends across provinces. While some show
observed in April, May, and August, reflecting seasonal no annual trend, most exhibit clear seasonal increases
groundwater variability. Takhiatash Province shows during the warmer months. These findings underscore
no significant trends annually or in most months, the importance of implementing localized and seasonally
except for a notable increase in November (Z=−2.205, adaptive groundwater management strategies in response
p=0.027), which suggests a late-autumn increase in to these temporal and spatial patterns.
groundwater levels. For Shumanay Province, both the
annual trend (Z=3.158, p=0.002) and monthly trends 3.2.2. IPTA test
are significantly positive, with consistent increases Insights derived from Tables 4 and S2, along with
observed across nearly all months except November, Figures 2 and S1, reveal detailed hydrometeorological

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 125 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080052