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Fuladipanah, et al.

3.3. Sustainability implications of the findings the national level, the analysis confirms an overall
Agriculture remains one of the primary livelihoods groundwater increase (Z=3.603, p<0.001). Several
in Uzbekistan; however, it is increasingly threatened provinces, such as Beruniy (Z=2.906, p=0.004),
by the impact of climate change. 49-51 Therefore, Amudarya (Z=2.906, p=0.004), and Chimbay (Z=3.172,
the country must develop and implement effective p=0.002), show consistent groundwater rise, especially
adaptation strategies to ensure food security and during the warmer months. In contrast, provinces such
enhance its economic resilience. The observed trend as Turtkul, Ellikkala, and Nukus exhibit no statistically
– both increasing and decreasing – in groundwater significant trends, indicating localized groundwater
levels presents a complex challenge for agriculture, as stability.
water availability directly influences crop productivity The IPTA method provides deeper insights into
and irrigation planning. These variations complicate seasonal dynamics, identifying months with significant
the formulation of sustainable adaptation measures in increases (e.g., April – May) and decreases (e.g., May –
response to a changing climate. The findings of the June). These seasonal variations suggest that, despite the
present study provide valuable insights that can support overall positive trend, groundwater recharge dynamics
the development of region-specific adaptation strategies fluctuate depending on climatic conditions and water
for future climatic challenges. usage patterns.
The rising groundwater levels observed in several These findings carry important policy implications.
provinces suggest a potential improvement in water Provinces experiencing rising groundwater levels may
availability. However, seasonal fluctuations and benefit from improved water retention and hydrological
localized areas of groundwater stability or decline balance, while those showing neutral trends warrant
highlight the need for targeted interventions and adaptive further investigation into potential contributing factors,
water governance. These groundwater trends directly such as groundwater extraction, irrigation intensity,
impact agricultural productivity. Therefore, continuous or climate anomalies. The study underscores the
monitoring of groundwater levels, combined with data- importance of adaptive and region-specific groundwater
informed irrigation strategies, can play a crucial role in management strategies to ensure sustainable use of
enhancing crop resilience and ensuring food security. water resources in response to both seasonal and long-
Previous studies have already demonstrated that term climatic variability. Future research should focus
climate change has significantly impacted water on evaluating the influence of anthropogenic activities
availability in Uzbekistan. 52,53 Understanding the – such as land use change and over-extraction – and
spatial and temporal patterns of groundwater trends is, integrate hydrological modeling to improve water
therefore, essential for long-term resource planning. The resource planning and resilience in climate-sensitive
application of non-parametric trend analysis methods – regions.
namely the MK test, SR test, and IPTA – demonstrates
how scientific approaches can inform climate Acknowledgments
adaptation efforts and ensure that groundwater resource
management evolves in line with environmental change. None.

4. Conclusion Funding

Groundwater resources are vital for sustaining arid and None.
semi-arid regions, yet they are subject to variability
driven by complex climatic and environmental factors. Conflict of interest
This study employed a robust multi-method trend
analysis framework – integrating the MK test, SR test, Upaka Rathnayake is an Editorial Board Member of this
and IPTA – to evaluate long-term groundwater trends journal but was not in any way involved in the editorial
across the Republic of Karakalpakstan, Uzbekistan. and peer-review process conducted for this paper,
Results from the MK test reveal that nine out of directly or indirectly. Separately, other authors declared
14 provinces exhibit significant increasing trends in that they have no known competing financial interests
groundwater levels, with Muynak Province showing or personal relationships that could have influenced the
the strongest upward trend (Z=3.884, p<0.001). At work reported in this paper.

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 130 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025080052