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Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

compared to the global average, with an intensification of and 2051 – 2080 according to the Coupled Model
extreme heat events. Therefore, the frequency, duration, Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios of
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and severity of heat waves are expected to intensify in Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)1-2.6, SSP2-4.5,
the future. 2,10 The projected effects of heat waves are and SSP5-8.5. The main objectives of this study were
expected to impact both social and economic sectors. to: (i) spatialize the 95 percentile of mean, minimum,
th
First, heat waves are expected to pose a significant risk and maximum temperatures; (ii) study anomalies; and
to human health. The adverse effects on health will (iii) analyze the trend of heat waves over the periods
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be more noticeable in impoverished regions, where 2021 – 2050 and 2051 – 2080. The studies focusing on
limited health coverage hinders adaptation and proper heat waves in Senegal using CMIP6 are limited. This
care. In fisheries, these extreme heat events result is the first study applying the CMIP6 Canadian Earth
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in the degradation of marine habitats, and negatively System Model Version 5 (CanESM5) model to project
impact the conditions required for the survival of local Senegal’s extreme heat trends. Therefore, this study
biodiversity. In terms of agriculture, prolonged heat extends several previous researches performed by Toure
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compromises photosynthesis activity and promotes the et al., Sow et al., Sow et al., Sow and Gaye, and
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proliferation of pests, both of which lead to a decline in Sy et al., which tried to address the health impacts of
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agricultural yields. 14,15 heat waves in the northeastern regions of Senegal.
Understanding this phenomenon is essential for
adapting to its impacts. However, studies on hot 2. Materials and methods
extremes in Africa have only been conducted recently,
unlike in Europe and America, where heat waves have 2.1. Study area
been extensively documented. This scarcity of studies is Senegal is a country located on the West Coast of
concerning given the increasing temperatures in Africa Africa. It is distinguished by its coastline stretching
and the insufficient adaptation measures, which are about 700 km. Senegal extends between latitudes 12°5
closely linked to the lack of climate data in the region. 16 and 16°5 North and longitudes 11°5 and 17°5 West
Particularly in the Sahelian region of Africa, there are (Figure 1). Bordering Mauritania to the north, Mali to
significant challenges in access and availability of climate the east, the republics of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau
data. On one hand, access is hindered by exorbitant costs to the south, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west, it is
in many countries. On the other hand, following the a country with a relatively homogeneous terrain with
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structural adjustment policies of the 90s, the observation altitudes rarely exceeding 50 m. 26,27 Some massifs
network has been underdeveloped, leading to incomplete remain mainly in the eastern part of the country, such as
or even data shortage over time. This partly explains the the Fouta Djalon, which rises to 581 m, but the altitude
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scarcity of studies on hot extremes in Africa, particularly decreases toward the west to 15 m toward the mouth of
in the Sahelian region. In addition, the continent is facing the Senegal River. The generally low terrain favors an
other pressing priorities, such as flooding, whose impacts unconstrained atmospheric circulation, subjecting the
are more noticeable than hot extremes. territory to a Sudano-Sahelian-type climate dominated
The challenge of limited data has been mitigated by maritime trade winds, continental trade winds
by climate modeling, which is capable of tracing past (commonly known as the Harmattan), and monsoon
and present climate changes, as well as predicting air masses. Under the influence of these defined air
future ones. Climate models have become much more masses, two distinct seasons emerge each year: a long
complex to better represent physical and environmental dry season and a rainy season. Soil science, on the other
processes at increasingly fine scales. Therefore, hand, is characterized by soils that are very vulnerable
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numerous studies have focused on the prospective to degradation, particularly water and wind erosion. The
evolution of the climate. Heat waves and their health hydrological potential is significant due to the presence
impacts highlight the importance of climate models of several rivers and lakes, such as the Senegal River, the
for strategizing mitigation and adaptation efforts. The Gambia River, the Casamance River, the Geba River,
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advent of climate data now makes it possible to predict and the Lake of Guiers, which provide substantial water
future temperature trends with greater regional and resources. However, the country’s water availability
even local detail, especially with the contribution of is highly dependent on the amount and distribution of
regionalized climate models. rainfall. Annual rainfall totals range from <300 mm in
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The present study aimed to analyze the future trend of the north to more than 1000 mm in the southern part
heat waves in Senegal over the periods of 2021 – 2050 of Senegal. The temperature ranges from 16°C to
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Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 135 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107