Page 146 - AJWEP-v22i3

Sow and Gaye

the 95 percentile of minimum temperatures over the to 32°C across the country. Only Matam stations and
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2020 – 2080 period. part of the Tambacounda and Kedougou regions record
For mean temperatures, the trend in SSP1-2.6 temperatures above 32°C. In the SSP5-8.5 scenario,
is similar to that of minimum temperatures, with an increase in temperatures is observed compared to
temperatures ranging from 33.87°C to 35.59°C, the previous scenarios. The temperatures fall between
a difference of 5.27°C compared to the minimum 32°C and 36°C across the country, with the western and
temperatures in SSP1-2.6. SSP2-4.5 is characterized central parts of the country fall between 32°C and 34°C.
by a more regular evolution, with mean temperatures In contrast, the eastern region recorded temperatures
ranging from 33.91°C to 36.63°C. This represents between 34°C and 36°C. Administratively, these stations
an increase of 5.25°C compared to the minimum are located primarily in the regions of Kedougou,
temperatures in SSP2-4.5. Similarly, SSP5-8.5 shows Tambacounda, Matam, and Saint-Louis.
a steady increase in mean temperatures, ranging from In addition, temperatures reflect similar spatial
33.78°C to 38.74°C, with a difference of 5.24°C relative dynamics for SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5
to the corresponding minimum temperature. (Figure 5). Temperatures range from 32°C to 40°C, with
Maximum temperatures exhibit a clear warming the western-central to southern region recording the
trend (Figure 4). In SSP1-2.6, temperatures range from lowest values between 32°C and 34°C. In the central and
41.09°C to 43.28°C, representing a thermal amplitude northwestern regions, temperatures range from 34°C to
of 7.50°C compared to mean temperatures and 12.78° 36°C. The highest mean temperatures are recorded in the
compared to minimum temperatures. SSP2-4.5 shows central to eastern region of the country, with temperatures
slightly higher values, ranging from 41.31°C to 43.95°C, ranging from 36°C to 40°C in all scenarios.
with corresponding mean amplitudes of 7.49°C and Maximum temperatures exhibit the highest values
12.74°C relative to mean temperatures and minimum compared to minimum and mean temperatures, ranging
temperatures, respectively. SSP5-8.5 reflects a regular from 32°C to 51°C across all three scenarios for the
increase in extreme temperatures ranging from 41.31°C 2021 – 2050 period. SSP1-2.6 presents temperatures
to 45.93°C, corresponding to a thermal amplitude of between 32°C and 34°C throughout the country,
12.67°C relative to minimum temperatures and 7.43°C while SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 show a varied spatial
relative to average temperatures. distribution with three temperature classes. In SSP2-4.5,
In summary, the trend of extreme heat shows a the western region falls between 36°C and 40°C. In
relatively irregular pattern marked by a modest increase the central region, the temperatures range from 40°C
up to 2050 for all SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. to 45°C, and the eastern region presents temperatures
However, from 2050 onward, a net warming trend between 45°C and 51°C. The distribution in SSP5-8.5 is
emerges across all variables (Figure 4). similar to SSP2-4.5, with the exception at the Ziguinchor
station, where temperatures between 34°C and 36°C are
3.3. Spatiotemporal distribution of extreme heat in observed.
Senegal
The spatiotemporal distribution of the extreme heat 3.3.2. Spatial distribution of heat waves from
was made based on the average 95 percentile of the 2051 to 2080
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2021 – 2050 and 2051 – 2080 normals. On the 2051 – 2080 normal (Figure 6), minimum
temperatures vary between 28°C and 36°C. In SSP1-2.6,
3.3.1. Spatial distribution of extreme heat from the temperatures are below 32°C across the entire country
2021 to 2050 except the eastern regions of Kedougou, Tambacounda,
The minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures Matam, and Saint-Louis. In SSP2-4.5, the temperatures
for three CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and fall between 32°C and 34°C across the entire country
SSP5-8.5) from 2021 to 2050 are presented in Figure 5. except south-central stations in the regions of Sedhiou,
The minimum temperatures are between 28°C Kolda, and part of Kaolack and Kaffrine, where the
and 36°C across all scenarios. Specifically, SSP1-2.6 temperatures are below 32°C. For SSP5-8.5, the
indicates a minimum temperature between 28°C and temperatures range from 32°C to 36°C, with the western
34°C, with most of Senegal falling within the range of and eastern regions showing temperatures ranging from
30°C to 32°C. Only a few stations in the Matam region 32°C to 34°C and 34°C to 36°C, respectively.
record temperatures exceeding 32°C. SSP2-4.5 reveals In addition, mean temperatures show a spatial
a similar pattern with temperatures ranging from 30°C dynamic that is significantly different compared to

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 140 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107