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Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

Figure 7. Temporal dynamics of extreme heat over the period 2021 – 2050. Figure created with ArcGis 10.8,
Sow and Gaye (2025).
Abbreviations: SSP: Shared socioeconomic pathway; T max : Maximum temperature; T mean : Mean temperature;
T : Minimum temperature.
min
there are alternating phases of decline and increase in 3.5. Trend of extreme heat in Senegal
extreme heats. The year 2072 marks a turning point 3.5.1. Trends of extreme heat s from 2021 to 2050
in the evolution of heat waves in Senegal. The first The trend of extreme heat in Senegal over the period
sub-period, from 2050 to 2071, shows a noticeable 2021 – 2050 is analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend
decrease, followed by an increase from 2072 to 2080. test (Figure 9). The Z-value of the test indicates the
Between these two sub-periods, extreme temperatures presence of a trend: a positive value reflects an increase
(minimum temperatures) increase by 0.07°C in SSP1- in temperatures over the period, while a negative value
2.6, 0.44°C in SSP2-4.5, and 1.35°C in SSP5-8.5. indicates a decrease.
For maximum temperatures, the increase is 0.16°C in Figure 9 shows significant upward trends for
SSP1-2.6, 0.23°C in SSP2-4.5, and 1.34°C in SSP5- minimum temperatures at all stations in all three
8.5. For mean temperatures, the increase is 0.05°C scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5)
in SSP1-2.6, 0.41°C in SSP2-4.5, and 1.34°C in (p<0.01). For mean temperatures, the warming trends
SSP5-8.5. of extreme temperatures are observed with different
The diachronic evolution of extreme heat is levels of significance. In SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5, the
marked by an interannual variability, characterized increase in extreme temperatures is noted with a 99%
by alternating periods of increase and decrease in confidence level (p<0.01), except for west-central,
minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures. The northwest, and northeast in SSP1-2.6 and south of
importance of this variability depends on the climate Tambacounda and a Kolda station (SSP2-4.5), for
scenarios of this study. Interannual fluctuations are which the significance levels are 95% (p<0.05). An
more pronounced in SSP1-2.6 compared to SSP2-4.5. upward trend of minimum temperature is noted in
In SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, the trends are more regular, SSP5-8.5 with a significance level of 99% (p<0.01) for
although fluctuating phases still occur. all study stations (Figure 9).

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 143 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107