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Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

Figure 11. P95 trends of T , T mean , and T max from 2051 to 2080. Created with ArcGis 10.8, Sow and Gaye
min
(2025).
Abbreviations: P95: 95 Percentile; SSP: Shared socioeconomic pathway; T max : Maximum temperature; T mean : Mean
th
temperature; T : Minimum temperature.
min
Ringard, which predicted a warming of temperatures cooling. Furthermore, artificial or desert surfaces
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in the future. The dynamics of extreme heat in Senegal with a high thermal capacity and conductivity trap
can be explained by the combination of climatic heat during the day, which is released at night, further
and geographical factors. One factor contributing to inhibiting cooling. These factors could explain the
the persistence of heat conditions is the influence of faster rise in minimum temperatures compared to
subtropical and Saharan-Libyan high-pressure systems. mean and maximum temperatures observed in Senegal.
These systems lead to the convergence of hot and dry These findings extend the results of Braganza et al.,
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air masses from the Sahara toward the Sahel, creating Easterling et al., and Hartmann et al. regarding the
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favorable conditions for atmospheric blocking, which faster increase in minimum temperatures globally, as
increases the likelihood of extreme heat. In addition, well as the studies of Trigo et al., Ringard, Rome
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the atmospheric influences are combined with the low et al., and Barbier in Africa and the Sahel. The
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humidity level and low cloud cover in these regions, increasing trend of minimum temperatures underscores
further contributing to the intensification of heat waves. the severity of heat waves, as highlighted by Meehl and
In addition, the trend is characterized by a greater Tebaldi and Trigo et al. 62
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increase in the minimum temperatures, which is reflected The spatial dynamics of these trends indicate an
in the reduction of thermal amplitudes. This is likely increase in extreme temperatures moving eastward. This
linked to the effects of human activities, particularly is due to geographical factors such as high humidity and
greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, CO emission elevated hydrometric levels in coastal regions compared
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2
from the Earth’s surface at night constrains nocturnal to inland regions. This spatial distribution of extreme
Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 147 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107