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Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

Figure 9. P95 trends of T , T , and T from 2021 to 2050. Figure created with ArcGis 10.8, Sow and Gaye
(2025). min mean max
Abbreviations: P95: 95 Percentile; SSP: Shared socioeconomic pathway; T : Maximum temperature; T : Mean
th
temperature; T : Minimum temperature. max mean
min
is observed with a 99% significance level (p<0.01) at records the largest increase in minimum temperatures
almost all stations except for those in the northwest above 0.050°C.
region (mean temperatures) and the stations of Saint- The magnitude of the Sen’s slope of mean
Louis, Dagana, and Kedougou (minimum temperatures), temperatures is irregular. The temperature growth
which the significance levels are 95% (p<0.05). in SSP1-2.6 is between 0.030°C and 0.050°C at
A significant warming trend is observed in SSP5-8.5 all stations in this study. A decrease in temperature
at a 99% significance level (p<0.01) for minimum and growth (below 0.030°C) is observed in SSP2-4.5
mean temperatures, while a stationary trend is observed throughout Senegal, except for the regions in Matam
for maximum temperatures at all stations. and Tambacounda, where the temperature growth
In addition, Sen’s slope for the period 2051 – 2080 falls between 0.030°C and 0.050°C. In SSP5-8.5, the
shows the magnitude of the temperature trend. Figure 12 temperature increase ranges from 0.013°C to 0.068°C.
illustrates Sen’s slope results from the Mann–Kendall The highest increase in temperatures between
test for the period 2051 – 2080, based on data from the 0.050°C and 0.068°C is observed in the eastern,
40 stations included in this study. northern, and central regions. A moderate temperature
An increase in minimum temperatures between growth between 0.030°C and 0.050°C is observed
0.010°C and 0.030°C is observed in SSP1-2.6 and the in southwestern (Ziguinchor, Sedhiou, and Kolda),
western region of SSP2-4.5 (Figure 12). The eastern central (Fatick, Kaolack, Kaffrine, and Diourbel), and
region of SSP2-4.5 shows an increase of minimum western (Dakar, Thiès, and parts of Saint-Louis and
temperatures between 0.030°C and 0.050°C. SSP5-8.5 Louga) regions.

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 145 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107