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Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

Figure 5. Spatialization of the P95 of T , T mean , and T max over the period 2021 – 2050. Figure created with
min
ArcGis 10.8, Sow and Gaye (2025).
Abbreviations: P95: 95 Percentile; SSP: Shared socioeconomic pathway; T max : Maximum temperature; T mean : Mean
th
temperature; T : Minimum temperature.
min
minimum temperatures, although the observed trend temperatures dominate across the rest of the country,
is similar to the mean temperatures in the period with the exception in the coastal regions.
2021 – 2050. A warming trend is observed in the
western part of Senegal compared to the earlier period. 3.4. Interannual variability of extreme heat
Mean temperatures vary between 32°C and 40°C, 3.4.1. Interannual variability of extreme heat from
with the western region having the lowest values 2021 to 2050
(32 – 34°C) and the central region where temperatures The temporal evolution of the extreme heat from
fall between 34°C and 36°C. The highest temperatures 2021 to 2050 was analyzed using the Lamb anomaly
(36 – 40°C) are observed in the eastern region for all index (Figure 7). The results show a highly irregular
three scenarios. interannual pattern of minimum, maximum, and mean
For maximum temperatures, the spatial dynamic is temperatures in SSP1-2.6. Two distinct phases can be
marked by much higher temperatures compared to the identified in Figure 7. The first period from 2020 to 2035
minimum and mean temperatures. For SSP1-2.6, the is marked by a downward trend in extreme temperatures
temperatures are between 32°C and 34°C throughout across all variables, while the second period, from 2035
the country, which is similar to the earlier period. In to 2050, is characterized by an upward trend in extreme
SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, temperatures range from 40°C heat.
to 51°C. The spatial distribution shows noticeable In SSP2-4.5, a highly irregular interannual variability
disparities, with the most moderate temperatures is observed, characterized by alternating phases of
observed in the west-central region, while higher rising and falling extreme heat. A declining phase in

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 141 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107