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Sow and Gaye

Figure 10. Distribution of the Sen’s slope in Senegal from 2021 to 2050. Figure created with ArcGis 10.8, Sow
and Gaye (2025).
Abbreviations: P95: 95 Percentile; SSP: Shared socioeconomic pathway; T: Temperature; T max : Maximum
th
temperature; T : Mean temperature; T : Minimum temperature.
mean min
Regarding maximum temperatures, all stations in and maximum temperatures in SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5,
this study exhibit notably low increases, with values and SSP5-8.5. The warming dynamic is the greatest
below 0.050°C in SSP1-2.6. At the spatial level, only in SSP5-8.5. This trend aligns with the work of the
the western region recorded the largest increase between Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),
5
0.030°C and 0.050°C. The temperature increases in which predicted an increase in temperatures. Previous
6
other regions are below 0.030°C. The recorded increases studies from Perkins et al. and Das and Umamahesh
7
of temperatures at all stations in SSP2-4.5 and SSP-8.5 showed that the increase in temperatures would result in
are below 0.030°C. a strengthening of global extreme heat toward the end
of the 21 century. At the Sahelian scale, Ringard et al.
9
st
4. Discussion reported similar findings regarding the intensification
of extreme heat. In Senegal, Sagna et al. support the
56
The purpose of this work was to study the future trends IPCC’s predictions by confirming this warming trend.
of minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures over The results show an overall upward trend across
two climate normals (2021 – 2050 and 2051 – 2080). all stations, scenarios, and temperature variables for
Three CanESM5 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and the period 2021 – 2050. In contrast, for the period
SSP5-8.5) were studied at 40 stations. 2051 – 2080, continental stations in SSP1-2.6 for
The results of this study reflect an increase in minimum and mean temperatures and all scenarios
temperatures across all variables at the national level. for maximum temperatures display a stationary trend.
This upward trend is observed in minimum, mean, This overall upward trend is supported by the work of

Volume 22 Issue 3 (2025) 146 doi: 10.36922/AJWEP025150107