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Explora: Environment

and Resource

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Mechanisms driving ocean stratification and

mixed layer deepening

Éric Zeltz*
Independent Scholar, La Motte en Champsaur, Hautes-Alpes, France

Abstract

This article aims to better understand the links between climate change and the
recently observed significant increases in ocean stratification and the deepening
of the mixed layer. Using a time series of ocean stratification data, we investigate
potential “signals” of interactions with other climatic phenomena. Our findings reveal
that the observed temporal patterns in stratification are primarily influenced by the
El Niño-Southern Oscillation. However, this influence alone does not account for
the overall increase in stratification or the deepening of the mixed layer observed
since the 1960s. Instead, we demonstrate that these two phenomena are largely
driven by the warming of the upper oceanic stratum (UOS). To incorporate these
findings, we adapted a climate model developed in 2023, enabling it to account for
the identified drivers. The enhanced model generates projections for five key global
climate parameters: atmospheric temperature at the ocean level, UOS temperature,
ocean cloudiness, ocean stratification, and mixed layer deepening. Our mathematical
analysis of the model indicates that the relationships underlying these variables
impose a clear growth trend on each of the five parameters, which eventually stabilizes
toward finite limits. This stabilization results in values that remain within reasonable
*Corresponding author: bounds, minimizing their impact on the planet and the global ecosystem. Under a
Éric Zeltz
(ericzeltz@wanadoo.fr) comparable scenario, for example, the model predicts an increase of approximately
1℃ in global atmospheric temperature by 2100 – significantly lower than the 2°C
Citation: Zeltz É. Mechanisms
driving ocean stratification and increase projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
mixed layer deepening. Explora
Environ Resour. 2024;1(1):4578.
doi: 10.36922/eer.4578 Keywords: Climate modeling; Ocean stratification; Mixed layer; El Niño-Southern
Oscillation; Natural climate regulation
Received: August 19, 2024
Accepted: October 31, 2024
Published Online: December 5,
2024 1. Introduction
Copyright: © 2024 Author(s). Recent studies indicate that ocean stratification and vertical stability have increased
This is an Open-Access article 1-3
distributed under the terms of the significantly over the past 50 years. The main drivers of this phenomenon, as identified
Creative Commons Attribution in these studies, include:
License, permitting distribution, (i) Surface warming due to global warming: The increase in heat at the ocean’s surface
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is intensifies density differences between successive water layers, thereby strengthening
properly cited. thermal barriers between the upper ocean layer and deeper waters. 1-3
Publisher’s Note: AccScience (ii) Melting polar ice: Warming-induced ice melt releases substantial amounts of
Publishing remains neutral with freshwater, which is lighter than saltwater. This freshwater remains on the top water
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional layer, further warming and reinforcing the thermal barrier with deeper layers of the
affiliations. oceans. 2

Volume 1 Issue 1 (2024) 1 doi: 10.36922/eer.4578