Page 144 - GHES-2-4

Global Health Economics and
Sustainability
Silver economy and long-term care

between long-term care expenditures and life expectancy preventive, curative, and long-term care expenditures; these
is expressed in the fact that the causal link between them countries are in the high-income group. The year range was
remains unproven. Without such evidence, the effects of 2004 – 2020, and 25 countries with regular data on long-term
an increase/decrease in long-term care expenditures on life care facility expenditures were identified: Austria, Belgium,
expectancy may not be accurately estimated. There is no Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France,
detailed study on this issue using one-to-one parametric Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, South Korea,
methods; therefore, this study empirically analyzes Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland,
the relationship between long-term care expenditures Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Switzerland, and the United States.
and life expectancy. Econometric analyses allow us to
empirically reveal the causal relationship between two 2.2. Statistical analysis
or more variables. Econometric forecasting models are EViews 10 software (EViews 10, IHS Global Inc., 4521
one method to investigate future trends in spending and Campus Drive, #336, Irvine, CA 92612) was used for
demand for long-term care based on demographic data statistical analysis.
(Spielauer, 2001; Spielauer, 2011; Schneider & Buchinger,
2009; Olivares-Tirado et al., 2011). To empirically test the 3. Results
relationship between long-term care expenditures and life
expectancy, this study’s research question was determined The average LEAB was 79.75 ± 2.94 years (min: 70.60; max:
as follows: 84.60), LEO65 was 14.75 ± 2.94 (min: 19.60; max: 5.60),
Q : Is there a relationship between life expectancy and and LTCFE was 350.37 ± 325.96 per capita/PPP (min: 1.37;
1 max: 1,669.19) (Figure 1).
long-term care expenditures? If so, to what extent and
in what direction does life expectancy affect long-term LEAB increased by 2 – 9% over 16 years in the countries
care expenditures? included in this study. In 16 years, the LEO65 increased
from 10% to 20% in Austria, Belgium, Canada, France,
2. Methods Germany, Greece, Iceland, Japan, Netherlands, Poland,
This study used panel data analysis to investigate the Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland. It increased by 21 – 50% in
relationship between life expectancy and long-term care Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, South Korea,
expenditures. LEAB and life expectancy at 65 years and Lithuania, Luxembourg, Norway, and Slovenia and by 70
over (LEO65) were considered independent variables – 90% in Estonia and Latvia. In the United States, LEO65
representing the silver economy. Expenditures on decreased by 5%. LTCFE increased by 16 – 19 times in Czech
long-term care facilities (LTCFE) were considered the Republic, Greece, and South Korea, whereas it decreased by
dependent variable for long-term care expenditures. The 28% in Luxembourg. Table 1 shows the 16-year change in
panel data method allows us to test many countries and the variables subject to the research.
multi-temporal data together. In this context, the analysis The equation to define the econometric model is as
was conducted in three stages. In the first stage, descriptive follows:
information about the variables subject to the research was
given, and the significance tests of the econometric model
were carried out using the least squares method. In the
second stage, unit root tests were performed to determine
the degree of stationarity of the variables. In the third
stage, the lag length of the model was determined, and the
causality relationship between the variables was analyzed
with the Dumitrescu Hurlin (DH) panel causality test.
2.1. Variables
In this study, LEAB and LEO65 were determined as
independent variables, and LTCFE (per capita, current
prices, and current public-private partnerships [PPPs])
was determined as the dependent variable within the
scope of long-term care expenditures in health. Data on
health expenditures were generally recorded as total health
expenditures at the country level. A few countries follow
classifications by health expenditure functions, such as Figure 1. LTCFE, LEO65, and LEAB from 2004 to 2020

Volume 2 Issue 4 (2024) 3 https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.3298