Page 64 - GHES-1-2

Global Health Econ Sustain

ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE
Stochastic modeling of age at menopause

for Nepalese women and development of
menopausal life table

1
1
Arjun Kumar Gaire *, Yogendra Bahadur Gurung , and Tara Prasad Bhusal 2
1 Central Department of Population Studies, Tribhuvan University, Nepal
2 Central Department of Economics, Tribhuvan University, Nepal

Abstract
Menopause, which connotes the end of a woman’s fertility, is a key turning point
in her reproductive life. Women’s age at which menopause occurs is affected by
several biological, social, as well as economic factors. The previous studies on age at
menopause mainly concerned with describing the status, differential, determination,
and consequence of it on women’s health. Stochastic analysis of distributional
patterns of the age at menopause has been paid little attention by researchers.
Therefore, probability distributions are applied to analyze the timing of menopause
stochastically. The results of the fitted model are used to construct the menopausal
life table. The main aim of this research was to identify an efficient probability
distribution to explain the age at menopause in Nepalese women. This involved
Academic editor: identifying the model that best fits the data, determining the characteristics of age
Mihajlo Jakovljevic M.D. Ph.D.MAE
at menopause described by the model, and constructing a menopausal life table
*Corresponding author: to compute the waiting time of menopause for women. Further, the probability of
Arjun Kumar Gaire
(arjun.gaire@gmail.com) having menopause and not having menopause at a particular age was presented.
To achieve these objectives, secondary data sets were used to fit probability models,
Citation: Gaire, A.K., Gurung, Y.B., and a range of statistical tools were employed to test and validate the model fitting.
& Bhusal, T.P. (2023). Stochastic
modeling of age at menopause for The results showed that the logistic distribution better captured the menopausal
Nepalese women and development information of Nepalese women and can be applied to formulate the menopausal
of menopausal life table. Global life table. Further, out of several parameter models used, the Rayleigh-generated log-
Health Econ Sustain, 1(2): 1239.
https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.1239 logistic model better fitted the data so it was considered to construct a menopausal
life table. This study provided a distributional pattern of the current and future
Received: July 4, 2023
menopausal timing of Nepalese women. Furthermore, it provided insights into
Accepted: August 21, 2023 the factors that influence this important milestone in women’s reproductive life.
Published Online: September 25, These findings could be helpful to medical personnel who are dealing with the
2023 consequences of menopause and post-menopause, policymakers who aim to
Copyright: © 2023 Author(s). improve women’s health, and researchers who are working in this field.
This is an Open-Access article
distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution Keywords: Menopause; Logistic; Log-logistic; Menopausal life table; Nepal
License, permitting distribution,
and reproduction in any medium,
provided the original work is
properly cited.
1. Introduction
Publisher’s Note: AccScience
Publishing remains neutral with In a woman’s reproductive lifetime, menopause is an inevitable phenomenon that indicates
regard to jurisdictional claims in
published maps and institutional the end of menstruation. A woman is normally diagnosed with menopause if she has
affiliations. gone without a monthly cycle for 12 consecutive months. From a biological perspective, a

Volume 1 Issue 2 (2023) 1 https://doi.org/10.36922/ghes.1239